WFC Ts

One of my holdings that I am trying to grow carefully is Wells Fargo (WFC). I think they are an incredible bank. Here is a link to an interview with their CEO that has significant insights into the economy and is not to be missed.

From the article talking about how much Americans are saving: "In fact we think there's something between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion on businesses' and consumers' balance sheets that is sitting in our vaults. I've never seen it like this before. I've never seen the deposit growth the way we have it, and it's not because the yields are so high. It's security."


Update December 6, 2012, closed at 33.14 and is on a tear, lots of analyst support.
Update December 17, 2012, 34.38

Update January 9, 2013, 34.71, 20 limit@34.50

Meridian Biosciences (VIVO) Ts

Update February 4, 2013 closed today at 21.12, 20 shares limit@21.00.
Update January 9, 2013, 20.97, an article posted on the Motley Fool website points out a technical analysis of their Accounts Receivable and Days Sales Owed might indicate good things. Going to take some money off the sidelines, 30@Market.
Update December 17, 2012 20.30, sadly I have neither an executed order or an open order with this online broker ( Ts), so it is possible this trade failed due to human error ( mine) however, if that happens a couple more times we are going to figure out how to change brokers. Also, it appears they are going to be adding two more products to their medical diagnostic roster according to this article.

12/1/12 20.03

3/1/13   21.42

Meridian Biosciences (VIVO) got whacked today dropping by 5%. It is up about 9% in my mutual fund Ts, so in the spirit of buying on a dip I set a limit order for 30 shares @19.30

Thesis

In a number of parts of the country, it is getting harder and harder to see a doctor. These guys make testing kits that you can use at home. They also have a good cash flow and balance sheet.

Charles Schwab ETFs: SCHH, SCHC, SCHE etc

7/23/13
SCHG (large cap) is up over 20%, but had a tiny drop of .3% today, 15@market
SCHP (TIPs) is starting to collapse like every other bond fund, 20 Limit@53.50
SCHE (emerging) is down 3%, 10@market

Update February 24, 2013
1) Many of the articles I read say that it is the time to be solidly into large cap stocks. Maybe so, let's start the research using low cost Charles Schwab ETFs:
CAP            5     30     90
S   SCHA    -       3       1
L   SCHV    1      1       3
L   SCHG    -       5       5
L   SCHX    -       4       4
M  SCHM   -       2       2
Too early for me to tell, but looks like trying to buy SCHV on dips for the next few weeks is not a bad idea. Here is the 30 day chart. They are pretty much rising and falling together, the SCHG  (yellow) could be a mild value play if it suddenly starting climbing.

2) Open Limit Orders
SCHA   10@37.50
SCHF    10@26.20
SCHV   10@32.15
"       "   10@34.00
VBA     15@72.00

Update February 5, 2013, market had a terrible day today, SCHF, SCHC, SCHG were hit the hardest on a percentage basis. SCHG (US Growth) seems to be doing the best overall, so added 20 shares @market. SCHG closed at 35.74 February 4, 2013.
Update December 21, 2012 SCHE ( emerging markets) was the most down for the day, closed at 26.28, put in a market order for 20 shares.

Thesis

I am using Charles Schwab online brokerage to manage a large part of my investment which is based on index ETFs. I will log in from time to time and try to discern which ETF is the most down today and it was SCHH (Charles Schwab REIT ) so I added 20 shares as a market buy. The strategy for this basket is to use Charles Schwab allowing no trade fee for their line of ETFs. This allows me to add to my positions in small amounts on dips and using limit orders.

I am VERY pleased to report that at this precise moment in time, all of the ETFs are in the green. So dollar averaging, by buying on dips to add to the position will help me improve the odds I can keep some of these in the green. Of course the market is going to drop at some point, but if we are careful we can add to the position with that as well.

SCHE and SCHC are both slightly down, I am going to set limit orders for these:

SCHE 25@24.60

SCHH 25@26.00

Ts Red Green zero point

Tranche 3 January 11, 2013
5 lowest green stocks in the account by percent since purchase
Ticker  5   30    90
GSK
GTI           1
OTEX 1            2
WFC
ITRN 2     2      1

Thesis let market forces help you choose small bets

The equities in the title are close to the red green neutral point in my Ts basket. Part of the small bet strategy of this basket is to let the market drive trading decisions. The hope is to use this to help find value priced stocks.

Tranche 1 consisted of:

ROLL

BRCM

ALV

BSX

IDX
I compared one month, three month and six month performance and BSX did the best followed by IDX. I used market orders and bought as close to 5.00 as possible.

Update December 8, 2012, looks like I lost money on this one, they are down 1.66% in the past 30 days last close was 28.51
Update December 17, 2012 BSX is up to 5.74, up 11.67% for past 30 days and IDX is 29.17 up 1.43% for past 30 days.

Update January 11, 2013 in a little over a month ROLL is up 14.75%, BSX 11.89, ALV, 9.11%, BRCM 7.89%, IDX -3.07%

Tranche 2 GSK, WFC, TEVA, CMI, ITRN and the last two won and I repeated the process.

Update December 8, 2012: Cummins (CMI) is up 3.66% in last 30 days, last close was 101.69 Ituran (ITRN) is up 1.17% for last 30 days, last close was 13.08
Update December 17, 2012 CMI 105.75 and ITRN 12.93

Update January 11, 2013 CMI is up 4.84% in past 30 days, 8.47% in the account. ITRN is up 7.84% in 30 days, 6.9% in the account.

I also did profit taking with Panera (PNRA) and used the money buy a one year CD from the bank of Baroda at .5% interest, but PNRA was up 26%.

I also set a limit for one share of Intuitive Surgical @500.00 it has been dropping and this may be an opportunity to add to that holding. By the way MAKO has become the lowest performer in the mutual fund. Gosh.

Red Green play of the day Ts

I got an alert that ASH had dropped over 4% in the first hour of the day. That leads me to believe that this will be an active day on the market. I went up to my mutual fund, basket Ts and sorted the equities by the day's gain and loss.

One rule of this basket is no big bets. I try to place trades in the $500.00 - $1,000 range. I chose the stocks that are positive ( green ) that had the largest drop so far in the day and set some deep limits, who knows?

HAIN 10 shares @ 57.00

GS 5@112

MA 2@470

NOV 10@68

Facebook update. My limit may not work, FB is screaming in the upwards direction, 25.70 at last count. But, what goes up due to Wall Street computer algorithms also comes down so we will see.

Facebook Ts

Update January 10, 2013 30.59, 51% increase over 90 days, that is awesome. But to keep me cautious since this is real money, I just read a Wall Street Journal blog saying Facebook's era is over. Not sure I agree.

Thesis 11/24/12

Update 3/29/13 Closed the position in Ts. We were up 20% and it has been dropping for a month and I thought I might as well protect the principle and lock in profits.

The US stock market has been on a long bull run so it pays to look for value picks. One strategy near the later stages of a bull run is to increase your positions in large safe positions in the hope money will flow to them and if you do start to decline into bear territory hopefully they will hold up better. I found a blog post suggesting that GE, Wells Fargo, Google and IBM might be good choices. I already have positions in all four and heavy positions relative to my portfolio in Google and IBM. This blog post recommends Yahoo and Microsoft. I am not at all sure that is a smart move.

But another strategy would be companies with good ideas and product that can move fast. What about Facebook (FB)? I use Facebook and so do a gazillion other people. The lockup is over, so if there are some large sales the price could go down. I am currently up 30%, but would be willing to add to my position if I could get a decent price. It is in the mutual fund, basket Ts which might have been bad strategy, it might have been better to put in the online retail basket, but it is done. Hmmmm. Decision: set a deep limit, which may not hit, this has been a good month for Facebook. 50 shares @ 20.00 Good Till Canceled. This is currently the only open order in basket Ts.

I will try to keep mulling this over, but I am comfortable with a bit of money on the sidelines right now. Sometimes cash is a smart place to be.

The market does not seem to like President Obama

Wow, the market really dropped today. That means it is time to buy. First I went to my mutual fund basket Ts. I picked six positive performers that got nicked today. One of the rules of that basket is to buy on dips. Everything is a market buy meaning I am using up about half of my allowable market buys for the year, but I want to lock in the dip. We have more money on the sidelines than we are supposed to so this will help line up with the rules for the basket. All buys are supposed to be between $500 and $1000, this is a "NO BIG BETS" basket.

Mastercard (MA), 2 shares

Amazon (AMZN), 3 shares

Goldman Sachs (GS), 5

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), 1

Price Smart (PSMT), 10

Portfolio Recovery (PRAA), 5

Why did I burn so many of my allowable market buys? Well, by the end of the week I may be calling this a dumb move, but these are some of the strongest, best performing assets in the mutual fund. Even if the market continues to drift down, my thesis is these will recover faster than most of the other assets. Anytime you have a portfolio, you expect to have winners and losers. By adding to the postions of the winners and a dip, the hope is they will help the overall portfolio.