Watch List (looking for a pull back to pick these up)

Stocks in rank order for my desire to add to portfolio and price points

(Last update March 10, 2013)
Summary: As the DOW is setting records, the doomsayers are predicting the end of the world as we know it. And they may even be right, but I want to think my priorities through carefully.

Increase small caps ETFs VBR and SCHA on a significant drop in basket Cs. This strategy is defined here.

Wal-Mart (WMT) currently 72.02, one of my regrets for the 2012 trading year was dumping my large WMT position in basket Es, but I had to because of the rules of the basket. I have a small position in basket Sk. The 20% drop would be 57.60. If it drops to 50, I think I would try to take it to core stock status.
12/17/12 69.20

3/1/13     71.74
4/2/13     76.02  Here is a pretty negative article though:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-26/customers-flee-wal-mart-empty-shelves-for-target-costco.html

Amazon (AMZN) I think this is one of the best opportunity companies on planet earth for the next few years. It last traded for 252.05 and its 52 week low was 166.97. A 20% drop would be 201. Anything below 170 is interesting, anything below 150 would rock my world. I hold a significant position in basket Sk, but at the right price would like to add.

3/1/13 265.74

3/22/13 257.75

Intuit (INTU) last closed at 61.44 with a P/E of 25. Decision, extremely deep limit 50 shares@55, probably will not hit, but if it does, we have opened this position in basket Ts.
12/31/12 59.48
1/4/13 62.22, up 4% for the past 30 days.
3/1/13 65.04, going to take a miracle for this to dip to my buy around range

Whole Foods Market (WFM) added to watch list 3/1/13. This is one of my three favorite grocery stores,  (the privately held Wegmans and Trader Joes are the other two). I have just set a Google Alert and will begin to study it. Since it is trading closer to its 52 week low than high, I am thinking about opening a small position in Ts so I look at it a lot. Let's see what research we can find:
Finance.yahoo.com has a 1 yr expectation of 103.15 and it is a Cramer pick
Ameritrade's analysts are neutral to poor
Schwab rates it a C, their analysts are neutral
Etrade analysts tend to be negative
Motley Fool CAPS is 4 out of 5 stars
Decision: I will do a better job tracking this stock if I own 10 shares of it in the mutual fund, limit@85.25
3/1/13 85.79
3/8/13 85.00

General Mills GIS) is in basket Ck (dividend). 3/30/13 they are increasing their dividend and will probably do better in a downturn than weaker stocks. P/E is fair 18.19, but debt is higher than I like to see. Expect this to be a fairly stable plodder. Buy around 38.00.
3/30/13 49.31

Disney (DIS) is up over 30% for the year. I hold this in my Ts mutual fund, it last closed at 49.66, to add to the position, I would want to see a price point of 70%, 34.66. And don't forget the Star Wars movie.

12/17/12 49.28

3/1/13     55.33

Biogen Idec (BIIB) has just had their Multiple Sclerosis oral pill approved. This will likely be the most prescribed treatment for MS. The stock is very pricey right now. Buy around 120.00.

Starbucks (SBUX), this only makes sens if there is a significant drop. Last closed at 51.84, 80% would be 41.47. Their loyalty program appears to be working, 86% growth in subscribers and they seem to be making progress at becoming a so called "third place" something other than home or office. They are also doing well internationally.


In January 2013 the news was abuzz about Starbucks legal tax minimization strategy in the UK.

The opportunity for them to really win is in the food. I read once that one third of purchases in the US at Starbucks include a food item. As we see MacDonalds continue to struggle at least for now it is far more likely for Starbucks to  intrude on MacDonalds food sales than MacDonalds McCafe to impact Starbucks coffee sales.

12/17/12 54.58

3/1/13    54.87
3/22/13  57.38

Panera (PNRA), is a stock I sold this year to lock in profits, it is currently richly valued. More analysis can be found here. Last trade 160.5, 80% 128.40.

12/17/12 160.52

3/1/12     160.50

Chipotle (CMG) is a stock I sold to lock in profits, it is currently richly valued, but slowly drifting down. It closed today at 263.75 and my fiscal cliff buy around is 210.80.

12/17/12 286.68

3/1/13     319.74

MSC Industrial Supply (MSM), they have the logistics figured out so their customers do not have to hold onto inventory. Wonderful company and a candidate for the Sk basket, bit overpriced need a dip.
1/22/13 87.79

Williams and Sonoma WSM. Strong leadership, dividend payer and intentionally trying to move more into an online store ( though there is no substitute for walking through a cooking store). They also are Pottery Barn, I must confess I have never been in a Pottery Barn. Maybe next time I am in Richmond.
3/22/13 49.83

Movado, (MOV) I made some serious cash on this watchmaker and locked my profits into a CD. Last closed at 34.69 and 60% would be 20.81.

12/17/12 31.34

3/1/12     36.40

3D printing is an overpriced asset class. SSYS last 74.95 70% is 52.46, DDD 70% 31.30, but it has high debt to asset ratio so SSYS is probably wiser.
SSYS 3/22/13 74.80
DASTY, a Euro company is up 42% for the year, at 50% I would buy at 56.88. Proto Labs (PRLB) is smaller and they are up 24% for the year, they last closed at 36.00 and 80% is 28.8. And to drive these printers you would need Autocad, ADSK at 80% is 26.50. NOTE: I have lost money with ADSK in the past so this needs to really drop to encourage me to buy it.

ADSK 3/1/13 37.36
3/22/13 41.39

 IPG Photonics (IPGP) in the Es basket has been a good stock to own, but it is richly valued. It last closed at 59.10 so 70% of that would be 41.37.

12/1712 62.48

3/1/13    60.11 (better set a Google alert and keep a close eye)

Celgene (CELG) is the Ritalin company, they also have a number of cancer fighters. Adding to watch list 3/1/13 105.62
3/8/13 111.36

 HSBC has been on a tear all year despite everything we read about Europe. Last traded at 51.10, I would be scared even at 80%, but 70% puts me at 35.77 for this dividend payer.

12/1712 52.13

3/1/13    54.83

Wabtec (WAB) produces about half of all the rail brakes and safety products in the US. They are a bit overpriced, their debt is close to the upper limit I will tolerate in a stock and they are very volatile. This certainly would add diversity to the portfolio. But at the right price: the last close was 84.62 and 70% is 59.23.
3/1/13 97.72

 Polaris (PII) don't make a big bet, but an off road vehicle maker would add some diversity to the mutual fund. Last trade was 84.81, 20% drop would put me in the 67 range. They compete with Arctic Cat, (ACAT) up 90% for the year, anything below 15 would be a sensible buy.

3/1/13 86.77

 Philips 66 (PSX) is a refiner. It has been on a tear all year and this dividend payer is richly valued. Now that is a bit of a risky investment even though we all know people are going to need gas. The economic success depends on external factors. Last close was 52.37 and 70% is 36.66.

3/1/13 63.90

Interesting ETFs

MOO is the largest agriculture ETF and is up for the year despite the drought. Last trade was 52.17 and 80% yields 41.73.

12/17/12 53.12

3/1/13     54.13

PUW is a progressive energy ETF. They do renewables and making gas from natural gas and such. 19.68 would be the buy point. Keep this as a small buy, and long term hold, renewable energy has struggled, but should eventually work.

12/17/12 25.00

3/1/13     27.08

VIS, Vanguard Industrials is an industry sector ETF. Therefore it will be cyclical. The best way to make money is add to your position on the bigger dips and reduce it a bit as it starts to peak. It is up 12% for the year, but it is also fairly volatile, so if there is fiscal cliff churn an 80% might hit fairly early in the game. It last traded at 70.50 and 80% if you want to execute early in the churn is 56.40 and 70% is 49.35.

12/17/12 72.09
3/1/13     77.23

WOOD is a timber ETF, I think the expense ratio is about .48. It is up 15% for the year, but has paid a decent dividend, though their track record is not like clockwork. It last closed at 42.73, 80% yields 29.9.

12/17/12 43.61

3/1/13     48.38

December 1, 2012 Fiscal Cliff Thesis

Update 3/1/13 We are still in an overall bull market, we just fell off another fiscal cliff and nobody but President Obama and Ben Bernanke seemed to panic. I am very glad I did some profit taking and that money is locked into short term CDs. In the future I think I will lock in Municipals to try to reduce tax exposure.

12/1/12
Well it is looking more and more like we are going to fall off the fiscal cliff. My thesis is this will start to freak some investors out and we could see some price drops in the next few weeks. That is of course, the time to buy, but what are the best companies to buy? Probably companies that have gotten too pricey right now to add to the position.

• Update December 17, 2012, so far we have enjoyed an overall up market since I first wrote this and that is a beautiful thing. I have zero sellers remorse over the five incredibly well performing equities I sold in Step 1, I refuse to attempt to time the market, just give me my 20% increase or better and I am a happy chappy.
• Update December 22. 2012, on Monday I will be closing my positions in the Ts basket (mutual fund) in: KAI, AMZN ( still have a position in Sk), CMC, BMC, DLB and PCAR. This is pure profit taking with an intent to purchase CDs.

Step 1, I want to profit take on some of the best performing equities in the Ts mutual fund. On December 3, the following market orders should execute.


RAX Last@ 69.12 12/22/12 72.86
ISRG 529.00 12/22/12 496.76
MA 488.68 12/22/12 493.57
ROIC 12.69
WSM 45.26 12/22/12 43.45

UPDATE: December 3, 2012, The orders did execute and I am cash heavy in Ts, but I am comfortable. I like the idea of keeping some powder dry before we find out about the fiscal cliff. I am VERY glad to have unloaded ROIC at a profit. I did my homework before picking it up, but I missed the whole thing about 41 million in warrants (essentially long term options designed to expire October 23, 2014). This equity is too marvelous to me and I doubt I will pick it back up.


Step 2, Keeping in mind the WASH rule, I should not add any of the above list back until January 4, 2013. That said, they are all great companies and I believe in their business models, so at the appropriate time and at the appropriate price I would be tempted to add them back.

Step 3, For the next few weeks, I need to start working on a list of other stocks/ETFs/mutual funds where I would like to go shopping. I think one good place to add new money is in basket Sk. Online retail is only going in one direction, up, up and away. However, any and every stock/ETF/Mutual Fund that you have designated as core to your portfolio ( you are heavy in this position) deserves a chance to have the position increased at the right price. Finally any equity that I closed in the Ts basket to profit take may be a good choice for reopening the position. They are companies I know and have researched so adding them back could make sense.

Investing in an up market

This has been modified from an earlier financial blog. I am no expert. Conditions change, we each have to do all your own thinking, but in October 2012, the market was up and bonds were fairly down. According to the universal wisdom, Bonds and CDs tend to be safer than equities, but they often do not reward as much in the good times.

I like CDs when I am getting subpar interest because there are two safety nets; first the bank has to fail and, second, FDIC would have to fail (and if that happens, I have bigger problems than my lost investment.) However, because it is such a safe investment, a CD tends to have a low interest rate most of the time. My thesis is that if I invest a thousand dollars in equities and earn 20 percent on that investment in an "up" market and then move it to a CD at two percent, I can think of my interest as an average of 20% and 2% and I have a much better and safer deal. Pssst: be sure and hold that equity for at least a year to avoid a potential 35% capital gains tax. Speaking of tax, if you invest with discipline, you will start to earn money. And the various governments will want to tax you on that money. You will have to do your homework, but in many states they do not tax money earned on municipal bonds from that state. Not being taxed can make a 4% return sound a lot better.

6/18/12, this strategy has really been working out for me. Since I have started doing this, there have still been no decent returns anywhere outside the stock market.

We "average" into the market, making some investment at least once a month with money budgeted for that purpose that we can tie up for at least five years. We are patient, except for times the market is screaming upwards, we we try to buy with limit orders

We begin with broad ETFs, because they should not go bankrupt; we favor ETFs that pay dividends

When we buy individual equities, we realize we are investing in a company, we have a thesis and we have a way to know things about that company

The majority of our investments are for the long haul, statistics clearly show the more we buy and sell, the less likely we will grow our portfolio

Not every equity will be a 30% return in the short term, but from time to time we look at an equity that we bought and did well, sell it as profit taking, and invest the principal and the profit in a safer alternative like a Municipal Bond or a CD. We do this because we know we should have a diversified portfolio and no same person would buy a multi-year CD at 1% interest at a time when there are potential inflationary pressures two or three years in the future. However, if we made 30% profit and use that money to buy the safer investment, we are protected from inflation. 

10/3/12 The strategy is still working out for me. A couple of speed bumps I have run into. Since I am buying into the market using "averaging", I didn't buy all of any position at one time. So, now at profit taking I have a longer delay. There are a couple positions I would like to close, but while I opened the position much longer than a year ago, I have been adding to it and have to choose between not taking my profit now or paying some capital gains.

5/1/13 Wow! Talk about an up market! At this point I am slowing way down on putting new money into the stock market, though I still open positions with worthy companies and will look closely at a bit more profit taking and putting that money into a wimpy yielding Municipals that are short term focused. 

Small Caps and Liquidity in Basket Cs

NOTE: This entire blog series is my trading notebook. I am NOT an expert investor, so be very careful trying to learn from me, I am just taking steps to make my notes and research available to myself and close family. You are very welcome to read and comment and even tutor me should you feel gracious :)

Small caps in Basket Cs
VBR Vanguard small cap
2/4/13 close at 77.18
2/8/13 I hold VBR and it went down today. Last close 75.02. Buy, 15, limit@72.00.
3/8/13 80.90 Waiting for a correction HOLD

SCHA Schwab small cap
2/4/13 40.51
2/8/13 41.26 Smaller bet, buy 10, limit@ 37.5 ( Good luck with that, man has to have dreams)
3/8/13 42.48

3/8/13 Notes:
NOTE(1): As it says in the research section small cap ETFs tend to be highly correlated. Adding another ETF will probably not increase diversity, just be one more account to manage at tax time. Instead, concentrate on building the SCHA position on dips. ACTION: set an email alert.

NOTE(2): We barely have enough small caps to disturb the liquidity of the basket, much less the portfolio. Setting a very patent target allocation of 10% of the basket over time, by making small commission free trades in basket Cs. As of today, both ETFs together are 3.85% of Cs. A 10% small cap allocation will be part of the strategy that drives Cs.

Thesis:

Of course you can read anything on the Internet, but I just read an interesting article on the liquidity of small cap stocks and their performance. From the article: "On the other hand investors who take the opposite tack and favour small value stocks that don’t trade frequently tend to do quite well. But they swap comfort for profits as they scour the back alleys of the market where many fear to tread."

Liquidity and Small Caps

Liquidity is how easy it is to buy/sell an equity. Houses are not very liquid and Apple stock ( AAPL) is very liquid. I never really understood exactly what this meant in conjunction with small caps, until I read Peter Lynch's take on this: "Another way that a lot of fund managers hemmed themselves in was worrying about ‘liquidity’. They avoided all the wonderful small companies – a good collection of these could do wonders even for a big portfolio – because the stocks were ‘thinly traded’."

What does thinly traded mean to me? I do a lot of my trading from Hawaii and the market is usually closed by the time I get my SANS work done and start thinking about investing for retirement. I see some small cap stock that looks good, and it last closed at 35.11, so I make a market order and find that the next day I bought it at 40.2397, what the heck? If there are only a few shares outstanding then I might get this unpleasant surprise, I am bidding on the stock, so are others and it pops up/jumps up as buyers are matched to sellers and guess what, retail investors do not have the fastest trade network, the big boys do. They got it cheaper, I pay too much. I know many people have different opinions about the Motley Fool investment advice, but one of the most repeated statements they make is: "Use a limit order". I have the rest of my life to balance my portfolio, I need to quit using market orders, it hits, or it does not hit. So be it.

Small Caps and Volatility

One of the things that I am thinking about is trying to smooth out my portfolio. At a time (March 2013) when the general advice is avoid Municipal bonds, I am increasing the % allocation to bonds. They are short, no more than 3 years, A or better, 1.2% or better, it takes some digging to find them, but I am patient. I am also experimenting with Floating Rate Funds for the same reason.

Small caps, either growth or value tend to be very volatile, so am I contradicting myself? Nope, it is a portfolio. It is made up of a number of baskets and each basket has a strategy and rules or procedures to enforce the strategy. So I have make a small cap play somewhere in the portfolio. Now in general, if I do not know the company well, I might be better off with an ETF, but I should not ignore the small caps asset class because they are volatile, after all, volatile can mean great gains ( or losses ) in a short period of time.

Of course it can be hard to do your research on what the small value stocks are and whether they are a good investment because not many analysts are following them. If you know the company well, it could make a lot of sense.

SourceFire illustrates the volatility of a small cap investment

In February 2013, SourceFire, (FIRE) the IPS and other network security device company was down 6% over the past 30 days. They are a great company and have great products. However, they are competing against Cisco's marketing engine and according to this article, they are in a slowing market. Also, with a P/E of 210.5 one could strongly argue this is not a value play, though it has clearly been a growth play in the past five years. However, despite the brief down, if you had bought in at the IPO, you would be very happy with the overall performance. Here is a chart from March 8, 2013, up 4% in two days, sooner or later that could add up.

Small Cap ETF Research

I do not know that many small cap individual equities that well. Therefore, it might make sense to have a position in an ETF that focuses on small caps instead of individual equities. Let's screen the performance of five examples on 30, 90, 180, 365 days
March 8, 2013             30  90 180 365
January 7, 2013.
            30  90 180 365
VB                        1
VBR                      2   1          1    2
SLYV  2          2         2     2    2  
IJS      1    2     1         3     3    3    3
JKL          1                       1          1

The thing that just jumps out at you when you do your research is strongly they correlate. So, it might be the better long term play is to choose the one with a lower expense ration which is usually Vanguard. UPDATE: March 8, 2013 Warning, this chart could be misleading. It is amazing how tightly correlated these portfolios are. The difference between one and another is tiny, usually less than a percentage point. I think choosing a Vanguard product because of the expense ratio makes all the sense in the world.

Timing, of course I cannot time the market, but this is an aging bull. Small caps did very well in 2012, but people will start to turn to large caps and mega caps when they think the end is coming; a so called flight to safety, so choosing when to buy is also worth giving some thought. And buying on a dip may make all the sense in the world as well. Let's channel Peter Lynch again:"Bargains are the holy grail of the true stock picker. We see the latest correction not as a disaster, but as an opportunity to acquire more shares at low prices. This is how great fortunes are made over time. "

The Universe minus Ts

US Individual Equities  (3 or more)         Basket   Dividend?    Reinvest?

AAPL                                                    Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13     -15.52  442.66
ADM                                                     Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13   +15.60   33.73
AMZN                                                   Sk         N                 N
3/30/13    +32.98  266.49                
BA                                                        Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13   +21.21   85.85
BANF                                                    Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    +9.80    41.70
BMY                                                     Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    +27.87   41.19
CL                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    +25.70   118.03
CLF                                                       Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    -72.07     19.01
CFBI                                                      Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13   +13.31    34.03
CTXS                                                     Sk         N                 N
3/30/13   -10.37    72.15
CYT                                                       Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13   +24.15   74.08
DD                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    +6.35    49.16
DELL                                                     Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13   +3.10    14.33
EBAY                                                     Sk         N                 N
3/30/13   +51.92    54.22
EXC                                                       Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    -19.76   34.48
FDX                                                       Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13    +15.82   98.20
GE                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +26.52  23.12
GIS                                                        Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +19.75  49.31
GRPN                                                    Sk         N                 N
3/30/13     +45.47   6.12
HE                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +8.92    27.71
HNZ                                                      Ck         Y                 Y
3/3013      +35.85   72.27
IBKR                                                     Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      -2.09   14.91
IBM                                                       Cs         Y                 Y
3/30/13  +82.18    213.30
INTC                                                     Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    -14        21.835
JNJ                                                        Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +24.92  81.53
KCLI                                                      Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +4.54  39.13
L                                                            Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13       +11.26   44.07
LLY                                                       Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13          +46  56.70
LPSN                                                      Sk         N                 N
3/30/13      -20.48  13.58    
LUK                                                       Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +3.38    27.43
MA                                                         Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13      +44.42  541.13
MCD                                                      Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +1.70    99.69
MDT                                                       Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +21.47   46.96
MMM                                                      Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    +38.77    106.31
NKSH                                                     Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +28.47    34.93
ODP                                                        Sk         N                 N
3/30/13     +80.39    3.93
PAYX                                                     Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +11.11    35.06
PETS                                                       Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13      +5.90     13.41
PFE                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +30.51    28.86
PG                                                          Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +21.85    77.06
PNC                                                        Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +10.48   66.50
PROV                                                      Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +80.32   17.01
PSX                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +121.30  69.97
SLB                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +10.35    74.89
SYK                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +19.69    65.24
T                                                              Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +21.74    36.69
UPS                                                          Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13     +16.73    85.90
V                                                              Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +66.53    169.84
V                                                              Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13     +59.06    169.84
VLO                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +81.82    45.49
WAG                                                        Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13      +42.17    47.68
WERN                                                      Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13      +4.64      24.14
WFC                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +27.10    36.99
WMT                                                        Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13      +25.18    74.83
XOM                                                        Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +5.63      90.11
XOM                                                        Cs         Y                 Y          
3/30/13  +12.89%  90.11

US ETFs

PHO Water                                            Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    +44.75    22.98
SCHR Intermed T                                  Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13    +6.42      54.174
SCHP US TIPs                                      Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13     +6.65      58.031
SCHD Div Equity                                  Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13    +15.9       31.79
SCHB Broad blend                                 Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13     +22.66    37.96
SCHX Large Cap                                   Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13      +20.76   37.35
SCHV Large Value                                 Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13       +23.22  35.48
SCHM   Mid cap                                    Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13    +19.68    31.51
SCHA    Small                                       Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13     +17.35   32.86
VBR     Small                                         Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13     +19.82   82.15
VYM   Dividend                                     Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +27.88   54.81
XLU     Utilities
+16.55   39.10
SCHH US REIT                                      Cs           Y                Y
3/30/13       +16.79  32.644

US Mutual Funds

FMAGX  US/Intl blend                         FIkIRA   Y                 Y
3/30/13   +9.1yr   79.95
SAMBX  Floating Rate                         Cs           Y                 Y
3/30/13   +0.44      9.06

EX US Equity

CAJ                                                      Ck         Y                 N
3/30/13     +2.12     36.69
CNI                                                       Ck         Y                 N
3/30/13      +32.20  100.30
CRH                                                      Ck         Y                 N
3/30/13      +5.70    22.09
CS                                                         Ck         Y                 N
3/30/13       +6.09   26.20
FTE                                                       Ck         Y                 N
3/30/13       -34.93  10.16
RY                                                        Ck         Y                 N
3/30/13       -1.38    60.30
SI                                                          Ck         Y                 N
3/30/13       +10.07   107.80
VOD                                                     Ck         Y                 N
3/30/13        +5.46  28.40

EX US ETFs

CNDA Canada small                              Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13       -30.42    22.52
EWC Canada Index                               Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13       -11.03    28.51
FXC Canada Currency                           Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13       -4.65      54.72

SCHE      Emerging                               Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13      +0.94     25.55
SCHF International blnd                         Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13       +7.77    27.84
SCHC International small                       Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13        +5.30    28.129

Foreign Mutual Funds

FICDX  Fidelity Canada                        Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +15.85     54.72
MAPTX Asia ex Japan                          Cs           Y                Y
3/30/13   +30.08   25.10

Cs or As MAPTX and other Asia Plays

3/22/13 24.62
2/22/13 25.18
1/22/13 24.91

3/22/13  MACSX has done better than MAPTX and FSEAX over the past 30 days. If things keep dipping, I may want to think about being even more surgical and adding Thailand THD or some Singapore ETFs (EWS, EWSS).
                   30     90    180   1yr   5yr
MAPTX               4      3      3      3
MACSX      2       2      2      2      4
FSEAX                        4
THD           1       1      1      1      1
EWS                                   4
EWSS                  3                     2

Drilling down on THD, it has dropped about 6% in the past few days due to internal Thai issues. Decision: set a deep limit in basket As, 50@82.00 last trade 87.45.

THESIS:

MAPTX gives me international exposure, I am heavy right now on USA. It is Asia ex Japan and has done will over time. Morningstar gives it an overall 4 star rating.  The expense ratio is a bit high 1.1%. But whether I was lucky or dumb, I was up 24% in December 2012 when it was trading at 23.99. At the time I wondered if I should sell before the end of the year and try to avoid the new capital gains rules? Decision was to stay the course and hold the MUTF.

Earlier Discussion

Update February 24, 2013 FSEAX is now at 30.18 and that is great, but I am still be doing better with MAPTX, kinda wish I had picked up MACSX.

Update February 4, 2013 24.99, hey slow and steady wins the race, but lets rerun the analysis for the past 30 days. Right now, it would be hard to convince me to go with FSEAX.

Update January 10, 2013 24.81 this has been a good fund for me, but for grins let's see if we can find some similar funds and see how they perform.
Equity     Expense   30 90 180 365 5yr
MAPTX     1.11       2  2   2      2    2
MACSX     1.12                       1    1
FSEAX        .94       1  1   1
This analysis is not compelling enough to make me want to change, but it is going to be important to watch FSEAX over the next few months.
Update: January 4, 2013 24.69
Update: January 1, 2013, MAPTX last closed at 24.42 WOW!
5/1/13 MAPTX 25.96 Cosmic!

December 21, 2012. I am not a big fan of Mutual Funds, you can't get in and out instantly. However, I have appreciated these two and they are both in my Cs basket with a fairly significant position.

FMIEX is a large cap value mutual fund. I think this is exactly where I want to be if we are a long ways into a bull market, at least that is what I read. Morningstar overall is 4 stars. Expense ratio is also 1.1% which is high. I am up 23% and we have the same question as MAPTX, I have held both of them long enough to trade. It closed today at 14.47.
Update: January 1, 2013 FMIEX last closed at 14.23, set a Google calendar to watch carefully and  start researching a large cap value ETF to replace. Looking at their 30, 90, 120, 365 performance, I think we go with IVE.
                30    90   120  365 2/24/13 5  30  90  180 365
FMIEX
VTV         2             2     2                     2    2    2    2
IVE           1     1     1     1                           1    1    1
SCHV                            3                 1   1               1

Decision: closed position in Cs with FMIEX. Opening position in As with IVE initial purchase 25 shares@market, last price was 66.39.  Following with limit 25@65.
February 24, 2013 last closed at 71.71.

Red Green Ts Jan/Feb 2013

Update February 14, 2013
1) Profit taking, after equities appreciate 20% or more, I sometimes profit take, right now, I am buying CDs that are fairly short term. I ran an elimination on equities in the Ts basket that are up over 20% and that I established the position in 2011.
                5        30      90       180
HURC      3         3        3        1
PRAA       2         2       2         2
Z              1         1       1         4
MMM       5         4       4         5
CVS          4         5       5         3
Decision: Profit take on MMM and CVS, buy a CD, this one is really short, comes due in November 2013.

2) New red report
In order of least red to most red, 5 least red in the account:
                5        30      90       180        365
PSMT       -         -         -          4            -
MCD        -         -         3          3           -
SSL          1         2        2         2            -
IBKR        2         1        4          1           -
MELI        -          -        1          -            -

Here is the 180 day chart:

Decisions:
Sell 60 PSMT Market: Pricesmart has come from positive to just barely negative, get out, preserve capital.
Buy 40 IBKR Market, Interactive brokers is climbing into positive territory ( I hope)
Buy 10 SSL Market, Sasol also looks to be climbing into positive territory

3) Bottom Feeding, sometimes equities that are strongly down start coming back up, we want to pick up on the trend and consider adding to the position.
                5        30      90       180        365
MAKO     3         1        -          -            -
WPRT      2         3        4         -            -
PPO         1         2        1         1            1
FFIV        -         5        3         2             -
TEVA      4        6        5          -             -
CHKP      5        4        2          3            -      
Decisions:
Sell 10 FFIV close the position
Buy 15 PPO@Market, last close 44.03

4) Open Limit Orders February 14, 2013 last close
                               5      30      90
BRCM 20@31.39     1       -        2     31.39
INTU 50@54.83       -       -        3     54.83
ALV 10@59.00        2       1       1     59.00
Decision, change Autoliv to 10@Market
Set calendar to look at MELI and HURC in 30 days
20 shares of MELI, down 4.7% bought at 87.75 last close 83.62
200 share of HURC up 22.8% bought at 24.06 last close 29.54


Update January 8, 2013 || 2/14/13
           5     30    90       ||  5   30    90
IDX            2                   1     2     1
HURC                             -      1     2
SLAB               2             3     3     3
JCI      2     1     1             2     4    1
COH   1                           -      -    -
Decision: 1/8/13: Market order 20 JCI last close was 31.19


1/8/2013 Open limit orders:                                             Close 2/14/13
JCI 20@30.00 - cut market order                                          31.83
BSX 100@5.00 last close 6.12 up 9.3% past 30 days               7.53
FDX 7@89.00 95.11 up 5.75% past 30 days                        106.56
BRCM 20@31.50 34.02 down 0.21 past 30                           34.57
ALV 100@59.00 65.53 up 4.2% past 30                                67.79
Decision: cancel BRCM ( looks like I failed to execute)

Watchlist:
OTEX 57.48 up 3.9% past 30 days, I hold 35 shares, up 2.42% in basket.
Update 2/14/13 Closing OTEX, still up enough to pay the commissions and make a slight profit, last close at 57.33.
CHKP 48.22 up up 4.08% past 30 days, I hold 40 shares, down 14% in basket

Update January 1, 2013
As I understand it we are going to fall off the Fiscal Cliff, so let's set a couple limit orders. The 30 day performance of the lowest positive stocks in the mutual fund from top to bottom are ( and we will reward the two that performed the best with limit orders):
Update of January 1 positive stocks on February 14, 2013
                            2/14/13               Status    Close                        
                                5   30  90  180
GSK                         -    4    4     -  +5.54%  45.66
FDX 7@89.00          1    2    2     2  +17%   106.56
BSX 100@5.00        -     1    1     1  +23.4%    7.53
HYLD  CLOSED POSITION
ENH                        2     3    3     3  +13.9%  44.15
2/14/13 BSX has appreciated the most, but their debt is higher than I would like to see, set a calendar for end of 2013 to consider profit taking if still high.


On the negative side, we will reward the one that performed the best:

OTEX
IDX
SLAB
HURC
JCI 20@30.00

Thesis 12/3/12

There is no way for a small investor like me to compete with Wall Street and their analysts and computers. However I can watch the market and see what is happening.

One of the exercises we go through with the Ts mutual fund is to sort all the stock by the percentage they are up or down and look closely at the zero point. The hope is to buy the stocks as cheaply as possible. We do two exercises the best performing stocks that are negative and the lowest performing stocks that are positive. The goal is to find stocks that are climbing in value.

The five red losers that have lost the least: IDX, ALV, BRCM, WFC, TDC and using the compare function in Google Finance, see which one performed the best for the past 5, 30, 90, 120 days. The winner gets a 1, second place gets a 2.

Then I repeat the process with the five lowest green ( in positive territory). Then I use that information to place a small $500 to $1000.00 increase to the positions. Here is an example from  today's close:

GSK      2
HYLD
OTEX    1 1 1 1
ENH             2
HAIN        2    2

Now this is not entirely fair, HYLD is a high yield bond, so it wil have a hard time beating equities if the market is generally going up, but I like to keep an eye on that world's performance even though the bond fund basket is Ak. Anyway, based on the exercise, I placed three Good Till Canceled limit orders:

• OTEX 10@56.25
• BRCM 20@31.50
• ALV    10@59.00

I am also setting a Google Calendar reminder to keep a close look at OTEX for the next month or so.

Panera (PNRA)

Update February 4, 2013, last close 163.40, down less than 1% over the past 30 days, but I am still not willing to pick it back up in this price range. I would be too likely to be singing the I bought Apple at 700.00 blues :)
1/6/14  176.07, but they are drifting down a bit, 52 week high is 194.77, all the research I have found online seems to consider Panera fairly valued at this point. They did just open a store in Puyallup off of Meridian at the South Hill Mall, will try to drive over, it has been about six months since I have been a Panera.
12/9/13, last close 166.06, not sure my thesis of 128.40 is correct *grin*, but I am sticking to it.
Update December 6, 2012, last close was 156.91, this is all over the map, it says it has a beta of .89, but in the past two weeks I would guess it is closer to 1.5.
Update December 17, 2012, last close was 160.52
Update December 22, 2012, last close was 158.17

Thesis

I closed my position in Panera June 25, 2012. It was up over 20% and part of the strategy for that basket (Ts) is to try to make money on equities and then after their one year birthday, sell the equity and buy a bond or CD to protect the gain.

But I am going to put it on the list for fiscal cliff preparation, if it drops enough I would like to pick it up. Now for what it is worth, I am leery of restaurant stocks as an asset class. I made very good money in the run up of Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD), but every time I ate at one I had a compelling desire to dissolve the position immediately; such a loud place. I also had the fortune to hold Chipotle (CMG) during its insane run up ( and we are going to DC in a week and I intend to visit their Asian restaurant, Shophouse). But I also held Starbucks (SBUX) from 2002 - 2004 when the stock would not climb over $20.00 yet every time I saw a Starbucks it had a ton of people in it ( like Panera ).
February 4, 2013 We did visit Shophouse and it was good not great and appeals at least at Dupont Circle to an younger college age crowd. I can't see how it could be a game changer.

The last close was 160.50 which is richly valued ( of course I said that about Chipotle and it made it to 400 or so). One definition of a bear market is being off 20% from its highs and that is what I think makes sense as a price target to pick Panera back up. So if it hits 128.40 and the company is still firing on all cylinders, I will plan to pick it back up.