Saturday, April 20, 2013

Ak - Bond Funds become individual Munis

I am not an expert investor. This is my trading notebook for myself and close family, but you are welcome to any of my research. All I ask is that you do your own research and make your own decisions.

6/24/13 According to CNBC, there are now record outflows from bond funds to the tune of 40 billion.  If we use DODIX as a proxy:
7/23/13 the NAV was 13.57, on 4/10/13 it was 13.88
ACTION: set a calendar alert to reread this in six months, bond funds may become pretty cheap.

5/1/13 This Lipper report does not make sense to me. More money is flowing into bond funds than equities and exiting large caps? Thesis: the baby boomers are starting to retire and their Edward Jones (no insult intended, I have an EJ guy helping me with part of my portfolio) advisors are putting them into (expensive) fixed income bond funds. Let's just pick one of my former holdings to sample:
DODIX is up 2.12% for the year. Sounds good, but why? Some part of that has to be the inflows, according to Lipper, of 42.3 Billion in the month of March alone. Now here is the crazy thing. If we go to the fixed income section of our online trading site, we see -- utter crap --. If I can get 1.5% Yield to Maturity on a 3 year horizon the skies open up and the angels start singing. When DODIX ( or any other bond fund) bonds get called or mature, we can say bye bye to that sweet 5 -7% interest rate and have to lock in real money at rates that frankly will not keep up with inflation.

Repeat not an expert, but I have been an analyst of every sort for most of my working life. I suspect a bond fund bubble (bofunble). And if I am right, who gets hurt? Hard working folks that put in 65 years and listened to the advice of their financial analyst and are counting on that investment for monthly income.

4/20/13 Feeling pretty good about getting out of bond funds and into short time horizon Municipal bonds. There is more risk in some sense ( inflation, default etc), but also more return. If I had stayed in the bond funds, this is what it would look like in per cent gains and losses:
                  30       90        180 days
BKLN       (.16)    (.33)      .72
TIP           (.33)    (.09)      (.21)
DODIX     (.07)    (.22)      (.14)
FHIGX      .89      (.44)       .44
PRFSX      .18       .18         0
USSTX       0         0          (.09)

Update March 1, 2013
About halfway through taking the money from the bond funds and buying individual Municipal bonds in basket Ak. Looking for stable outlooks, A or better, short horizon max 2016. The crazy thing is that two of the bonds I tried to buy sold out from under me, so someone is also trying to buy bonds.

I read a Zacks article that recommends four international bond funds: FNMIX | PREMX | JEMDX | GAMDX | REBAX. Not personally ready to do that.

GTIP 53.89 (Watching this international inflation sensitive ETF closely)

Update February 24, 2013

Well, it is starting to happen. Still in the green for the entire basket, but in the past 30 days, things are headed South. Closed all positions except GTIP and probably want to set some sort of trailing stop for that.

Closed ETFs include: BKLN and TIP. Closed Mutual Funds include: DODIX, FHIGX, PRFSX, USSTX. Over the next few weeks will replace these investments with Municipal bonds.

February 4, 2013

I am continuing to watch the bond fund basket closely. I closed my position in HYLD in Ts today at 50.68 so all bond funds are now in Ak basket. The two best performers for 5, 30, and 90 days are GTIP and TIP which tells me someone believes we are going to face inflation. GTIP ( global, inflation protection ) is by far the best performer. But as I was doing my research I noticed something, GTIP does not move exactly with the market. For that reason I think I want to add a bit to the position.
Decision: purchase GTIP in two tranches. Half @market, half Limit@54.50, GTIP closed at 54.76 today.

GTIP (Blue) is not highly correlated with S&P or Dow Jones
The third best performer in the basket is FHIGX. This is a municipal long bond fund. Obviously this is tax advantaged. Two ETFs similar to this are TFI and MLN. MLN is fascinating to me, it is almost as if it was leveraged, it has much bigger swings than the other equities in this basket. But the whole point of Ak basket is to be calmer than the general market.
Decision: No more changes for tonight.

January 10, 2013

Closed position on PCY while I am still ahead.

January 9, 2013

Continuing to monitor these closely. I hold four mutual funds:
Ticker     Focus     Expense   30day   90day  
DODIX    Bond A+    .4           1
FHIGX    Bond A+     .46                     1
PRFSX   Muni Int      .5
USSTX   Muni Int      .33

All 4 have dropped over the past 30 days. In particular I am concerned about FHIGX, I added to this position April 9, 2012 and it is my largest mutual fund holding. I am up 9.81%, but that could erode quickly. If I do liquidate, two portfolio candidates when the time is right are FTABX and MLN. Here are similar mutual funds with a tax free municipal focus to FHIGX:

Ticker     Expense   30 90 180 365 5yr
FHIBX       .46          1                      3
FTABX      .25          2   1     1    1    2
VWLTX     .20                2    2     2
ACLVX      .48                      2          1

January 4, 2013

This is starting to look very hard to solve. At some point in the future interest rates will go up. When that happens bonds and bond funds will be under pressure. That point is not tomorrow, but apparently that fact is beginning to put pressure on bond funds. My thesis is this is not a really good place to be right now.

Worse, bond prices are sucky right now. So as bond funds add additional funds they tend to perform worse because their bonds perform worse. No action today, but need to review everywhere I hold bond funds. They are mostly in basket Ak, but there is another one, MWTRX, in the As basket. This is being used for sector and international ETFs, so I am going to sell it partly because I am afraid I will not watch it properly and partly because I would like to tidy up the basket.

Some trading ideas from my research, all 4 star Morningstar:

  • BABS, based on build America funds so it is taxable, seems to have a few things going for it.
  • MLN, long municipals
  • SMB, short municipals
Decision: close position on MWTRX in basket As. Use that money to buy a short term municipal bond. Monitor basket Ak closely and look for opportunities to buy short term municipal bonds and begin to close most positions. Two to think about keeping are TIP and GTIP, if interest rates are going to go up, they may do well, though a Forbes blog suggests TIP is now in an oversold condition.

Now, how to get back into the game when the time is right. Probably the best idea is to look for a newly minted closed end fund. Ideally, I could be one of the preferreds ( when they create a closed end fund there is an IPO and it would be ideal to buy in at that point).

What about the limit on JNK in Ak? I think I will leave it and simply make it more aggressive 50 JNK Limit@40.00.

January 3, 2013

Decision close position on MBDFX, think about a replacement ETF. Candidates to replace include MBB, LAG, IEI, SHY, TLH, BSV. There is no clear winner here, but plenty of losers, it may be time to move to cash in this asset class for a while. Continuing to search, XMPT, IGU, HYMB, UJB. UJB is up over 20% for the year and IGU has not been doing so poorly either.
NOTE: I hold LAG

UJB is a leveraged ETF, those make it hard to sleep at night. It's gross expense ratio is 3.02%, net is .95% so it is rather expensive. It closed on 1/3/2013 at 51.47. If I do it I will buy on a dip and only hold a small position.

IGU is also leveraged with a similar expense ratio. It closed on 1/3/2013 at 55.45. Uggg.

So, we keep researching. This is real money at stake. What about lower rated, higher yield, higher risk based assets?

HYG            3
JNK     2     1     1     1
PHB                         2
HYS     1     2           3

JNK has a .4% net expense, 12 billion in assets, it is sort of an index fund. 

Decision: close position on LAG, we have a microscopic loss. Open a limit order position on JNK, 50@40.50.

This will have the Ak basket with the following:
JNK ( if limit hits)


And entirely too much money sitting on the sidelines, but best I can do right now.

    December 22, 2012
                  30    90    180   365
    AGG       5      5      5      5
    BKLN     2      4      3      4
    PCY        3      2      1      1
    GTIP       1      1      2      2
    TIP         4       3      4      3

    • iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond Fund ETF (AGG) is negative for 30 day period and is now negative overall. It is the lowest performer of the ETFs in this basket.  Decision, sell and look for replacement. Candidates include: BND, LAG, BIV, VMBS, LAG seems to be the most consistent. Decision, open a small position, 50@market. Put on Google Calendar to review. 
    • iShares Global Inflation-Linked Bond Fund (GTIP) is the best performer over 30 and 90 days, Decision, let's add to the position 25 shares@market.
      • Update January 1, 2013 GTIP is still the best performer and with the House of Representatives not accepting the Fiscal Cliff deal, the odds are the market will go down, let's add 25 shares with a limit of 53.5
    • Why market instead of limit; these are bond funds, they tend to be fairly steady state, at least that is what I am hoping.


                  30    90    180   365
    DODIX    3      5      1
    FHIGX    5      1      2
    MBDFX   1      2      1
    PRFSX    4      4      5
    USSTX    2      3      4
    VIPSX     6      6      6

    • Closing position on VIPSX
    • Reducing postion on PRFSX, but want to keep some skin in the game to monitor
    • Increasing position on MBDFX
    Update: January 1, 2013, it may be time to reduce exposure to bond funds, they are only up because people have been looking for safety. I will think about this over dinner. In the past 30 days, MBDFX has dropped 2% which is a lot for a bond fund.

    Ek CDs and some energy

    I am not an expert investor. This blog is my trading notebook for myself and close family, though you are welcome to any of the information. Please do your own research and make your own decisions.

    Thesis for basket Ek 4/20/13

    There is an old rule of thumb that you take your age, subtract it from 100 and that is the percent of your invested portfolio (not including home) that should be in stocks. As people are living longer, that is being questioned and many experts are suggesting to have a higher percentage in stocks to prevent outliving your money.

    The flaw with this of course is that it is possible to lose a lot of money in the stock market. As I am approaching retirement I am increasing the hedge ever so slightly.  To the best of my understanding CDs are pretty safe. Also, in a pinch, CDs purchased from a brokerage can be resold, but probably not at a profit under current interest rate conditions.

    CUSIP Matures Interest
    G99  10/11/13 0.55%
    YW0   2/3/14  0.85%
    5D0   3/23/15  0.95%
    G73  10/13/15 1.15%
    RE8   3/23/16  2.50%

    5/19/15 Another CD has expired. Put an order in for 30 University Tex Univ Revs. Yield 1.141 Matures 08/15/2018. BTW, SYMX went up 8% today, who knows, that may get above water yet.

    5/5/14 I took the cash from the CD that expired and moved it into small positions for municipals. This online broker had a good supply of munis that come due in 2015. The yield is dreck++, but it parks the money for a short time, earns a dollar or two in interest and is tax advantaged. Obviously I need to think about the longer term strategy for this basket.

    3/11/14, I am not really happy with my strategy or execution, the biggest CD expired 45 days ago an reverted to cash, doing nothing. Need to rethink this some.

    NOTE: from an earlier strategy there are two energy "orphans" in this basket:
    4/20/13 106.84
    4/2013 1.04

    Wednesday, April 17, 2013

    Ts - Red Green 2013

    Note: I am not an expert in investing, but if any of my work helps spark ideas, you are welcome to them. Strongly suggest you do your own research, this is real money we are talking about.

    This is going to be the last post for basket Ts in 2013.  I tried to emulate an actively managed mutual fund. During 2014, my plan is to consolidate, reduce the number of positions, then when the inevitable  pull back happens have some cash ready to increase some of the strongest positions. Needless to say, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance, but it is certainly an indicator.

    There is nothing magic about the red green process, but over time it has allowed me to spot and take advantage of trends. Be careful, this is only about trying to spot trends, I bought these equities at different times, so this is not an apples to apples comparison.

    I have to do some analysis before the year ends to see if I should sell some losers. This blog post serves as my digital trading notebook. I will read it top to bottom today, do some additional research and make the best decisions I am capable of. I need to dump enough losers to offset the dividend payments the account has received.

    12/12/13 Highest performing losers(reds) - high to low
                      30  90  180 1yr  5yr
    MCD         -     -      -     3    4
    GES          -    3      3     2    3
    LECO      -     2      1     1    1
    LF             -    -      -      5    2
    TEVA      -     1     2     4    -

    Decision: I think I have egg on my face with Leap Frog (LF), going to close the position to prevent further losses. Market sell, 90 shares, last close 8.10, my loss will be about $22.95 + two trade fees.
    Opportunity: Lincoln Electric isn't likely to stay in the red, but it doesn't count as a value play either. Do some more research and set a trade alert in case it drops.

    Next tranche of losers
                      30  90  180 1yr  5yr
    ISRG          -    -      -     -      2
    CTXS        1    -      2    -      3
    RDWR      3    1      1   2      1
    CORR       4    3      -    1      5
    COH         2    2      -    -       4

    Decision: hold on to, possibly increase the position in Radware (RDWR) especially if there is a pull back. So why is it down? Depending on when one bought it it might even be an up (green). I bought it 6/27/12 and it was at a bit of a high. This shows, I hope, why red greens are NOT decision makers, but sometimes help me spot trends.

    Lowest winners better to lower
                      30  90  180 1yr  5yr
    HURC       2    -     -      3     2
    PANW       -    1    1      4    5
    MELI         -    -     -       1    1
    SSL           -    -     2       2    3
    SLV          -    -     3       -    4

    Analysis: Keep in mind this is relative, most of these are going to bounce around up and down, relative to each other. To have an absolute evaluation, one needs to focus only on that equity, but I find one of them a bit interesting and that is Pao Alto (PANW). I am familiar with the technology as well and they were early to the Next Generation firewall party. They have some patents, but I do not think they constitute a "moat" to keep others out of the field, in fact, I think Fortinet was earlier to market. PANW's track record isn't very long, I think their IPO was July 2012. Here is their chart, the $60,000 question is can they keep th current spike going.

    12/4/13 Leap Frog (LF). This is a maker of educational tablets for children. I am always nervous about buying an equity I do not understand, but I have a relative with two small children and have seen them play with the gadget. Limit 90@8.30, last close was 8.44.

    12/2/13 BSX, overall I like the company. The debt to assets is a bit higher than I like to see, I favor a ratio of less than 20, but inflation seems to be a distant concern, raising money should not be hard. I already have this position, but cautiously seek to add to it. Limit, 50@11.00 last close was 11.58. It is unlikely this will hit, this is the 3rd best performing equity in my mutual fund, but que sera sera.

    The lowest performing greens in the fund in order of best to worst are SYZN, HURC, SSL, SLV. TILE AND MCD. Though I crave McDonald's cheese burgers w/o onions, love the way they are integrating into stores like Wal-Mart, see they are working hard on their menu, (if you have not tried the Bacon quarter pounder you owe it to yourself). I just cannot put another dollar in that equity; considering performance, I am overweight. Of the rest Sasol, SSL, seems to be the most interesting. They have had a great year. However, I have a lot of exposure to energy. Decided on a half hearted limit, 15@49.35 last close was 49.54.

    11/30/13 Top performing reds in the fund. Best to least performing.
                      30  90  180 1yr  5yr
    ISRG          -     -    -     -      4
    TEVA        -    4    3     3      -
    LECO        3    2    1     1      3
    COH          1    3    -     -       2
    RDWR       2    1    2    2      1

    Think I need a calendar alert for ISRG in about two weeks this used to be a profitable stock for me, but it is clearly headed in the wrong direction. Or maybe just pull the plug. RDWR on the other hand seems like it will reach positive territory. Let's try a limit to add to our position, 30@16.

    Coach (COH). There are a number of reasons why this might be a good buy, strong brand, doing well outside of the US, especially in China. However, there might be some good reasons NOT to buy as well, tepid US sales, a drift away from the original brand concept of really strong and durable purses, and a new art director, ( which could prove to be good or bad). And sales of luxury items are drifting down in China.
    Decision: Deep limit, 30@54, last close was 57.90.

    11/30/13 Did a lot of research into Extendicare (EXETF). Care of older folks in Canada and the US has to be a growing trend over the next 20 years though the margins may get interesting in the wrong way. Instead of a limit order, I set a calendar alert and will see how they are doing in 2014.

    Also, decided to close my position on Riverbed (RVBD). We are going to get thumped this tax year and a few losses can help reduce the pain. 200@Market, 20% loss.

    11/29/13 The market is only open till 1 PM today, so setting up some trades:
    I have decided to harvest a loss with National Presto, NPK, they make bullets and mostly sell to DoD which is not a great place to be right now. 30@Market, but can use the loss to help offset the tax burden from the dividends.

    Considering opening a position with Catamaran, CTRX. They may be positioned to compete with Express Scripts, which I hold and is doing well. The thesis is simple, some piece of Obamacare is bound to survive even if the next President is a Republican. They have gone far down the road and it will be difficult to unravel a lot of it. Catamaran's business model might let them take a bit of market share from Express in the health exchanges if things go their way. I went for a limit 30@45.00, last close was 45.55, it is not an aggressive limit, I just need some famous analyst to report that black Friday did not meet target or some such and the Wall Street computers will start to sell everything but the kitchen sink.

    11/23/13 The mutual fund is doing well, but heck it is a bull market, right now is a bit like fishing in a stocked pond with wiggily worms. The scariest positive is MELI, I am up 12%, and I am confident of the long term, but have to wonder about profit taking, long past the one year capital gains hit. Added about $1500, (from dividend payouts, when possible you want to create a compounding machine), to positions in:
    LECO 72.22
    SZYM  8.20
    Both were market purchases, I am a big fan of limit, but in a bull market you have to run with the bulls.

    Update March 29, 2013
    1) Limit orders that perhaps should be market
    Here are all the limit orders:
                      5    30  90  180 1yr  5yr
    FTNT         -     -    2     -     -     1
    CHEOY     -     -     -     3     1    4
    QCOM      1     2    3    1      3    3
    RDWR      -     1    1     2      2    2

    CTXS       -     4     2    -       -     2
    BRCM      3    5     4    -       -     3
    NOV        2    3     5    -       -      5
    INTU       1    2     3    2       2     1
    TILE        -    1     1    1       1     4
    Lets compare the strongest performers:

    QCOM   1     3    4     3       4      3
    RDWR   -     2    2     4       3      1
    INTU     2    4    3     2        2      2
    TILE      -    1    1     1        1      4

    Decision: 35 TILE@Market to open position, look for a drop to add more, 15 RDWR@Market, Accumulate, 50 INTU@MARKET to open position, keep limit on CTXS@ to open position, cancel FTNT do not open position, watch CHEOY closely

    2) Westport Innovations. Kathy is going to invest about $1k in CLNE in her MLk basket. I hold WPRT in Ts. So, she is investing in natural gas fill up stations coast to coast in the US and I am investing in the intellectual property holder of the ways to build the engines. Long shots, but added 25@Market to my position.

    Update March 27, 2013
    1) Red/Green lesson learned. Need to start using longer timelines. Starting now, I think I should start to factor in 5 years when possible.

    Reds             5    30  90  180 1yr  5yr
    TEVA   -     2    4     -     -      -     -
    ERIE    -     3    3      1    1     -     2
    IBKR   -      4    2     2    2      -     -
    SSL     2      5    5     3    3      -     -
    NPK    1      1    1     -    -       1    1

    Decision: Stay the course

    Update March 25, 2013
    1) LQDT, Liquidity Services was a candidate for the ecommerce basket, but as I was doing my homework, it really had me scratching my head. Analysts tended to love it or hate it and a considerable number hate it. But it is interesting enough to me to open a small position in the mutual fund and watch it closely and keep learning more about the company. Decision: Limit 35 @28.75, it closed today at 29.35.

    My thesis is this company has the potential to be the information broker for surplus goods. They have worked with eBAY and I have to guess one of the case studies is either Dell or HP.

    Update March 22, 2013
    1) CHEOY, my limit for 20 shares hit; therefore it took a dive. When I look for stock news, I am not seeing anything so far, when I look for news it is all positive including a heartwarming video of a mom hearing her son's voice for the first time. This is one of the great things about being an investor. Not sure what I am missing. Probably nothing, maybe just did not set a deep enough limit.
    3/1/13 36.17
    3/22/13 34.96

    CHEOY is most definitely a green so lets check performance of the two above and below, best to least performing.
    3/27/13                             5   30
                  5       30      90
    HURC                       1          3
    WFC      2         2       2         1
    CHEOY 3         3              2   4
    FDX                          4
    GSK     1          1       3     1   2

    No immediate crisis on CHEOY.  Fed Ex is off a bit, but they are not going anywhere and like UPS FDX stands to continue to make money from a failing post office. However HURC is a bit troubling. CHEOY does not appear to be followed by analysts, so this may be a company to invest a bit more in.

    3/27/13 I am still holding pat on Feb Ex, but very aware it has lost over 7% in 30 days.

    2) HURC Let's take a closer look.
    1/22/13 29.02
    2/22/13 29.06
    3/22/13 27.10
    3/27/13 27.08

    It does have a beta of 1.57 and it bounces around. They did have a lower first quarter compared to 2012, largely because a big part of their market is Europe. We are past the one year point for any purchase of this stock so we can profit take at any time. No action right now, but want to watch this one closely.

    Update March 18, 2013
    1) The market is insane, but not to complain, everyone likes a roller coaster. While I was teaching in Orlando, it set records for back to back highs. Today, is a little bit choppy. Forget firing bullets instead of cannonballs, today is a BB day. If I do anything at all, it will be surgical.

    2) Open orders:

    3) Best performing Greens in order (does not include penny stock TSRYY):
    3/27/13                              5   30
                   5       30      90
    Z            1        1        1     1    1
    PRAA     2        2        2     3   2
    DIS         -        3        5          4
    GS          -       -          4     -   -
    FB          -       -          -     -   -
    OII         3       4         3     2    3

    Could it be time to head to the exits with Facebook?
    3/27/13 Decision: profit take with GS and FB

    4) Lowest performing Greens, high to low:
    3/27/13                              5    30
                   5       30      90
    GSK        2        -        4    1     3
    MCD       -        1        1    -     1
    RGS        3        -        3    -     2
    PANW    4        2        2   2     4
    WFM      1        -         -   3     -

    3/27/13 No action at this time

    5) GS, as it says on the open orders, I put in a limit for 5 shares of GS@146.50

    Update March 7, 2013
    1) Open orders:

    2) Reds looking for climbing activity:
    3/27/13                      5   30
                   5   30   90
    RGS                     3   -     -
    BCPC      1     1    1   1    1
    RDWR    3     2    2   -     2
    TDC                         -     -
    SLAB                      -      -
    TEVA    2    3
    Decision: 25 BCPC @Market see screenshot above, 25 RDWR@Market.  Keep a close eye on TEVA.
    Decision: sell 75 RGS, 90 TDC, 65 SLAB

    Update March 1, 2013
    1) Open orders:

    2) What's up SUP?
    Nope, not Stand Up Paddle Boards though we have those in two states, this is Superior Industries, the aluminum wheel maker. They just got creamed after earnings.
    Decision: 25@Market last closed 19.54

    3) Ireland Bank
    I made a small bet on this equity, it has done well for me, but it keeps dropping this month and there is not chance I will ever really understand it. Closing position, 350 shares@7.62.

    Update February 24, 2013
    1) Open orders:
    BRCM 20@31.39 last close 34.53
    INTU 50@54.82 last close 62.78
    RDWR 15@ 35.50 last close 36.90

    2) Three tranches of negative equities in the basket. From least negative to most negative.
                   5    30   90
    MCD       3    2     3
    SLAB      -    3     4
    GTI         -    -      -
    MELI      2   -      1
    RDWR    1    1    2
    Decision: close position on GTI to preserve capital, this will be a 2% loss. RDWR 15@35.50 GTC.
    3/1/13 GTI is now down 28.9 percent for past 30 days.
    4/27/13 GTI 7.06 down 30% over past 90, -5.4 past 30 days

    3) The second tranche is even further down, so we need to be careful and really think this through.
                  5      30     90    180   365
    IBKR     -        1      -        2       -
    ERIE     -        3      2        1       -
    SSL       -        4      3        4       -
    CHKP   1        2      1        3       -
    HAIN    -        -       -        -       1
    TEVA   -        5      -         -       -
    Decision: close HAIN and TEVA. Purchase 10 CHKP Market@52.23.
    3/1/13 CHKP 51.83 up 1.68% past 30 days, hard to say how this is doing.

    3) The third tranche would be the lowest performing equities in the basket. I should tread very carefully here.
                         3/1/13    5  30
                   5    30   90
    GES        4     1    5
    BCPC     3     3    3     2    1
    RAVN    1     4    2           3
    SQM      -      -    -
    IRBT     5      -    4     1
    WPRT   2      2    1           2
    Decision: close SQM. Buy WPRT
    3/1/13 WPRT 28.28 down 2% on the day, up 5% on the past 30, this stock has a beta of 1.91, so there will be some tummy churning moments. Let's set a Google Alert on IRBT, I so very much want this stock to succeed.

    4) These are the lowest performing equities that are green ( positive ) in the basket.
                   5    30   90
    GSK        -     3     3
    NTGR     -     -      -
    BRCM    1     2     1
    NOV       -     -      -
    TDC       3     -      4
    WFC      2      1     2
    Decision: Close NTGR Market, it is falling fast. Last close was 33.70. Other than that, hold and wait on the rest.
    4/27/13 NTGR 28.82 down 28% over last 90 days

    5) Greens with the biggest dips on Friday
    4/27/13                           30  90 1 yr%
                   1   5    30   90
    Z             3   1     1     1   2   1    58
    ESRX      1   3     2     3   -    3    3.4
    ALV        2   2     3     2   1   2    15
    Decision: No action required

    6) New candidates to be added to basket. All of these candidates appear to be well run companies with low debt. I have experience with Fortinet (FTNT), Pao Alto (PANW) and Whole Foods ( WFM). I can't say I play Leap Frog (LF), but have seen kids with them. CRUS is a major supplier for Apple (AAPL), to by this stock is to believe Apple will go back up.
                  5      30     90    180   365
    WFM     -        -       -       -        4
    CRUS    -        -       -       -        2
    PANW   1       2      3       -        3
    FTNT     1       1     1     -1         -
    LF          -       -      2       -         1

    Not exactly awe inspiring. But I do want to keep an eye on these, especially Whole Foods, they are not carrying as much debt as most other grocers an in conjunction with Costco and Wal-Mart could be poised to take market share away from the competition.
    Decision: PANW 15 Limit@55.00, FTNT 30 Limit@23.50.

    February 4, 2013
    Sold 100 LRN - Thesis, it is still in the green, but suspect the pressure on proprietary institutions will make it a bit choppy. Closed today at 18.53
    2/24/13 21.81
    3/1/13  20.83 Phoenix University Accreditor reccomends probation, this will probably impact most proprietary institutions.
    4/27/13 25.21 When am I going to learn to slow the heck down?

    Sold 95 HYLD - Thesis, time to reduce exposure to bond funds, better to actually own the bonds. Closed today at 50.68
    2/24/13 50.87
    3/1/13  50.92 Making progress at buying bonds in basket Ak, keeping them short, looking for better opportunities in 2015 and 2016.

    Open limits from previous analysis:
    Ticker      Limit     Last Close    Action, if any
    INTU      54.83       62.09      
    JCI          30.0         30.83
    BSX        5.00           7.45         Change from limit to market
    FDX       89.00         103.39      Cancel, this bus has left the station
    BRCM    31.5          32.45
    ALV       59.00        65.01         Strongly considering a modest market buy

    Five lowest % that are positive in the account, lowest to highest 2/4/2013
    2/24/13   5   30
    BRCM   1    2
    SLAB    -    3
    IDX       2   1
    OTEX   -    -
    GTI      -     -

    IDX has performed the best in the past 30 days, but I am overweight both on this ETF and Indonesia in general so passed on adding.  SLAB has performed second best for 30 days and 90 days. Decision: Buy 15 SLAB Limit@43.23.
    2/24/13 42.27
    3/1/13   31.09 Ouch!
    4/27/13 39.32

    Five highest % that are negative in the account, highest to lowest
    Ticker      5    30   90   180
    RGS        1                   2
    MELI             2      2
    MCD       2     1            2 (tie)
    JCI                       1       1 (25% increase in past 6 months)

    How about these tea leaves, how do you choose? I will certainly watch these closely.
    JCI profit is down, and their debt is close to my 20% limit. Decision: close the position and lock in a small loss before it becomes a big loss. Last close was 30.83.
    Decision: take no more action tonight, set a Google calendar event to revisit the remaining 4 equities in ten days.

    Monday, April 1, 2013

    The US Patent 100

    In the course I author and sometimes teach, SANS MGT 512 Security Leadership Essentials, we have an intellectual property section. I tell people that one of my investing strategies is to bet on companies that engage in R&D and that a good proxy for that is the number of patent applications filed per year.

    To be honest I have felt a little like a lone wolf in the wilderness. But tonight I learned about the US Patent 100 from a newsletter called Wall Street Daily. It appears to be the work of one guy, (Louis Basenese) and I am sure he is off sometimes, everyone is, but I find his writing style enjoyable ( stocks, after all, are rather boring, so it is nice to see someone spice it up). And I have only read one issue of his newsletter, but I have to say I agree with the majority of what he wrote.

    Back to the US Patent 100, I Googled it.  This is a joint venture of MDB Capital Group ( the investment bank that tracks IP ) and IAM, the intellectual property magazine. Here are the top five ( no surprise):

    • Samsung
    • IBM
    • Canon
    • Panasonic
    • Sony

    I hold IBM and Canon and have an ETF that has Samsung as its largest holding ( I do not really want to trade on the London Stock Exchange just to hold Samsung). I guess I need to look into Panasonic and Sony.