Thursday, June 1, 2017

Es Tech Stocks

I am not an investing expert. This is my trading notebook for myself, friends and family. You are welcome to my ideas and research, but please make your own decisions and do your own research. As I remind myself all the time, this is real money we are spending.

Basket Es Thesis:

This money is a retread. I used to invest with Motley Fool guidance, but the MF advisor left several years ago, they changed everything around, so I decided that most of the money should go to Vanguard ETF/Munis. I still keep some tech stocks, and Wal-Mart, (based on their focus on online sales), and IBM are welcome here at the right price).
NOTE: I will be tracking IBM and Wal-Mart separately

6/5/17 sold my entire position in GOOG, still have GOOGL due to the stock split.

Historical: Basket Es THESIS (this portion last updated 9/18/14): 

The strategy in basket Es is to follow the advice of the Motley Fool Million Dollar Portfolio, a paid advice service. When they say buy, I do, when they say sell I do. It is one of my best performing strategies and I have enjoyed the communications from them. I especially appreciate that they allow me to read a transcript of their video updates. I process information much better and faster by reading.

2/27/15 The POT sale executed @35.72, really glad I used the trailing stop. As I sold out the news is all about people buying POT. Was this a mistake, or the blessing of not being where the majority is? Only time will tell.

2/18/15 PRLB is a rapid prototyping company that is growing rapidly. There was a bit of a dip today -$2.33 at present. Put in a limit to open a position that is good for the day, we have 31 minutes of market left to go.
PRLB 50 Limit 71.10 Current 71.17
Executed at 71.10, now let's put in a bigger order for less money:
PRLB 75 Limit 67.02 Current 70.99 and bouncing like a beach ball

2/17/15 I have wanted to open a position on Tesla, (TSLA) for some time. I have a strong sense that it is going to drop after I get, but this is a long term position and if it does drop significantly I will be very tempted to add to the position. What is the driver that causes me to do this now? The more I think about the battery factory and its potential in addition to electric cars.
TSLA 35 Limit 203.00 Last close 203.77
2/18/15 Bought at 203.00 current 204.89

1/27/15 I may need to rethink my thesis for this basket, can't sort out all the mail, but MDP may be under new management.

The new team, (and I am reading about that right now), has made several sell recommendations, including Tile Shop, (TTS), and Bridgepoint, (BPI),  I agree and have closed those positions. They also recommend closing Potash, (POT). I find myself squeamish here, but current price is 36.53 and I have a trailing stop sell at 34.69. POT has continued to go up, as of 2/16/15 the sale point is 35.52, last close 37.04.

The market bashed Microsoft down over 8%. I have concerns about MSFT myself though as a Washington State resident I wish them well. Added 25 shares to my position @ market, (43.03).
2/11/15 Last close 42.38.
2/16/15 43.87

9/18.14 Closed my position in Exelsis, (EXEL). Great, more cash to invest in an aging bull market *grin* Infinera, (INFN), oh yeah. The hardest lesson in investing is to wait. I am still hugely overweight on this and aware the CXOs are cashing out. And every share is long, (over a year). Even so, I think I will ride this train a bit longer. I rarely make recommendations to family members, but I tipped this one to Trey, Hunter, and Ben.

7/22/14 WFM never hit, need to rethink it. Set a limit order to increase my holdings of LL. They missed their numbers and the market punished them. 50 shares, limit @ 54.00, last close 55.71.

6/11/14 Trying to open a position in Whole Foods, (WFM). They got smacked today, but are recovering in after hours trading. Going to use a limit order for safety. Price at market close is 41.24, but with after hours trading they are bumping 42.05. 200 WFM 41.00 L 41.24.

6/7/14 I have a solid holding of Amazon in my ecommerce basket, but will set some limit orders to open a position here as well. 20 Limit 320 LC 329.67, 25 Limit 310 MDP recommends selling Hillenbrand, (HI), to raise cash for other opportunities. Executed the trade, but did it as a trailing stop of 5%. I put the bid in on Saturday June 7 against a Friday close of 31.13. So far, the peak is 31.69 on June 10. According to the online stock service, the sell trigger is currently at 30.096.

5/12/14 Setting up some limit orders Tile, (TTS), 100 L@13, L 13.64, Invensense, (INVN), 50@18.00 L 18.42

4/23/14 Market was a bit soft. Using a limit to add to EXEL position, 650 L@3.40 L3.445

3/11/14 Market dropped a bit today, added to INVN position, 50 M@21.23

2/20/14 Leap Frog, (LF), leads the market in kids tablets, but their stock has been creamed. 750 shares, Limit@6.60 LC 6.78

1/29/14 Closing the position on Denbury Natural Resources, (DNR).

POT They have gotten cheaper, my thesis is that as populations grow fertilizer will be important. I wanted to set a limit order, but this broker would not let me. When I tried to call for help, the answering machine said they were closed. OK, OK, Market, 160 shares, last close was 30.74.

INTC They have been on a climb, thesis, they will solve the mobile chip issue with System on a Chip. Market 200 shares last close 24.45.

11/22/13 TSLA As insane as it sounds I want to open a small position on TESLA, they are selling well and at higher margins than Ford or GM, ( though I love our Cruze). Also, opened a larger position on POT, thesis is there are only so many potash mines possible on planet and the world will keep growing crops.

1/10/14 100 Limit@18.00 last close 19.57
5/17/13 INVN was down 3% today. 100 Limit@11.60, last close 12.42

1/10/14 Still liking Lumber Liquidators, but think this ride has been too good. Set another trailing stop for 5% with a goal of reducing this to 3% of my basket. Last close 104.32.
5/2/13 Lumber Liquidators has been incredible, but I am going to sell part of the position. Set a trailing stop at 5% which works out to $76.50. It hit the same day I set it.
5/17/13 This is insane. Last close was 87.50, great company, but why is the stock so high?

4/16/13 Market took a hit today, probably because of the Boston Marathon, our prayers and concerns are with the injured and those grieving the lost. Added to my position in IPGP and DNR.


1/10/14 FIGRX 40.46 now up +4.5%, FIREX 10.19 -9.8% Tried to set an online alert to monitor these, but the website seems to be having issues.
5/17/13 FIGRX 37.15 FIREX 10.82
FIGRX  34.72 up up 13.3% for the year
FIREX 10.83 Up 33.87% for the year
3/23/13 There are two mutual funds in a very small basket on the same online broker, but a different strategy and account number. The idea was to increase my international coverage. Both are down they are FIGRX and FIREX. I have held both for years.

Today, I used a fund screener to see if I could do better than FIREX (International real estate).
                 30  90  180  1yr   5yr
FIREX      1    1    1      1      -
TAREX          3                    2
GRSIX     3    2     2     3
JIRSX      2           3     2       1
Decision: hold FIREX and hope it can make up some more lost ground. Set an alert and a calendar setting to check on it.

                 30  90  180  1yr   5yr
FIGRX      2    1    1      1     2
FSIIX        1    2    3      3     3
SWISX     2    2     3      3
VDMIX    2     2    3      3
TRIPX      2    3     2      2     1

I also screened it against ETFs
FIGRX     1     1    2     1       1
GWL                    1
EFA         2     2            2
VEA                     3      3       3

The mutual funds are VERY HIGHLY CORRELATED, it almost does not matter which one I pick. There is more variation between FIGRX and the ETFs. I hold SCHF in basket Cs. The strategy there is to use the online broker's offer to trade with no commission and add small amounts on days when it dips. So even if the SCHF ETF does not outperform FIGRX, with free commissions, the ability to buy on dips and the much lower fee, at some point I should make SCHF the primary way I play the FTSE Developed ex-US Index.

FIREX 10.41 I am still down 8%, this is only a Morningstar 3 star with an expense ration of 1.19, this is one of those what was I thinking moments, hopefully we still will make a bit more forward progress.
FIGRX 36.90 down 4.67% from the time I bought it


1/10/14 Director Kenneth Goldman just unloaded 12,100 INFN shares at an average price of $10.00 netting $120k. Wonder what that will result in on Monday?

7/23/13 11.61 some financial group called Needham has raised the price target to 16.00.
6/1/13 10.53 can you believe it? Wow!
5/1/13 Finally a pop. A loud resounding pop. I try to be fairly patient as an investor, but this was overdue. I close my eyes and try to imagine the pain the short sellers are feeling. Last close 8.42.

5/17/13 9.62
4/20/13 6.26 this is now the 2nd worst performing equity in the basket. And they just installed a 100G network that is an astounding 38,00km long.
Update March 18, 2013 7.02, INFN won two more customers, Pacnet and Akado, who knows?
Update February 12, 2013, INFN is still making some progress, last close at 6.79, but it is being jerked around by Wall Street Trading programs. The word picture in my mind is a Raggedy Ann Doll in the jaws of a 200 pound Rotweiler.
Update January 10, 2013 6.51 short intrest still 14,511,000
Update January 2, 2013 major update 9% in a day closed at 6.34, according  to Short Squeeze, short interest is 14,511,000 down from 14,955,300.
Update January 1, 2013, last closed at 5.81, will be VERY interesting to see if it can keep climbing in January 2013.

Update November 5, 5.07 another positive day; who knows
Update November 28, 5.41, up 11% in three days. Come on and pop! When a stock has a lot of short interest and the short sellers have to close their positions it can accelerate the increase.
Update November 29, this press release is fairly exciting. It talks about demonstrating a Software Defined Network ( SDN ) using Open Transport and Open Flow.
Update December 6, 5.73 and it dropped .06 on the day
Update December 17, 5.84, up 34% in 30 days. With all respect to Marvin Martian, "Where's the pop? There was supposed to be an earth-shattering pop!" Well, this is one of those moments where individual small investors have to sweat the Wall Street Efficient market engine. The number of short stocks is increasing when the stock is up 34% in 30 days. What does Wall Street know that I do not?
Update December 21, 2012, I am guessing some Wall Street program made a pretty big sell bet this morning. INFN had raised to 6.05 and then plunged to below 5.80 and closed today at 5.94. So it is still on an uptick with a setback today.

Infinera Thesis 11/4/12

The biggest reckless play I have in the entire portfolio is Infinera, INFN. I have been in this equity for a long time and watched it fall further and further, but believe in their technology and also believe we are going to need faster and faster networks. This is my field. Every week or so, I pull it up in Google Finance hoping to see forward motion. Every week I look at my Google Alerts hoping to see of another sale of DTN-X. So far, all I have seen is more red ink.

They have been increasing sales and the fourth quarter of 2012 should give a lot of clarity as to whether they have a chance of shaking the short sales and earning back the ground they have lost in the market.

Hillenbrand (HI)
7/23/13 I was reading an analyst note saying this casket maker would soon be dropping. They are up 6% for the month and a number of other analysts say things look good for them. Current price is 24.95.


11/18/12 Markel is going to take some damage as a result of Hurricane Sandy. I am *assuming* ( yeah, yeah, I know), the earlier drop was a result of both the fiscal cliff concerns and also the Hurricane. I picked up five shares to add to my position using a market buy@482.00
7/23/13 543.40 up 25% YTD

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