The Universe minus Ts

US Individual Equities  (3 or more)         Basket   Dividend?    Reinvest?

AAPL                                                    Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13     -15.52  442.66
ADM                                                     Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13   +15.60   33.73
AMZN                                                   Sk         N                 N
3/30/13    +32.98  266.49                
BA                                                        Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13   +21.21   85.85
BANF                                                    Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    +9.80    41.70
BMY                                                     Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    +27.87   41.19
CL                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    +25.70   118.03
CLF                                                       Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    -72.07     19.01
CFBI                                                      Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13   +13.31    34.03
CTXS                                                     Sk         N                 N
3/30/13   -10.37    72.15
CYT                                                       Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13   +24.15   74.08
DD                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    +6.35    49.16
DELL                                                     Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13   +3.10    14.33
EBAY                                                     Sk         N                 N
3/30/13   +51.92    54.22
EXC                                                       Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    -19.76   34.48
FDX                                                       Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13    +15.82   98.20
GE                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +26.52  23.12
GIS                                                        Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +19.75  49.31
GRPN                                                    Sk         N                 N
3/30/13     +45.47   6.12
HE                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +8.92    27.71
HNZ                                                      Ck         Y                 Y
3/3013      +35.85   72.27
IBKR                                                     Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      -2.09   14.91
IBM                                                       Cs         Y                 Y
3/30/13  +82.18    213.30
INTC                                                     Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    -14        21.835
JNJ                                                        Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +24.92  81.53
KCLI                                                      Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +4.54  39.13
L                                                            Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13       +11.26   44.07
LLY                                                       Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13          +46  56.70
LPSN                                                      Sk         N                 N
3/30/13      -20.48  13.58    
LUK                                                       Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +3.38    27.43
MA                                                         Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13      +44.42  541.13
MCD                                                      Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +1.70    99.69
MDT                                                       Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +21.47   46.96
MMM                                                      Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    +38.77    106.31
NKSH                                                     Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +28.47    34.93
ODP                                                        Sk         N                 N
3/30/13     +80.39    3.93
PAYX                                                     Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +11.11    35.06
PETS                                                       Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13      +5.90     13.41
PFE                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +30.51    28.86
PG                                                          Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +21.85    77.06
PNC                                                        Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +10.48   66.50
PROV                                                      Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +80.32   17.01
PSX                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +121.30  69.97
SLB                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +10.35    74.89
SYK                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +19.69    65.24
T                                                              Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +21.74    36.69
UPS                                                          Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13     +16.73    85.90
V                                                              Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +66.53    169.84
V                                                              Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13     +59.06    169.84
VLO                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +81.82    45.49
WAG                                                        Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13      +42.17    47.68
WERN                                                      Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13      +4.64      24.14
WFC                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +27.10    36.99
WMT                                                        Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13      +25.18    74.83
XOM                                                        Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +5.63      90.11
XOM                                                        Cs         Y                 Y          
3/30/13  +12.89%  90.11

US ETFs

PHO Water                                            Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    +44.75    22.98
SCHR Intermed T                                  Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13    +6.42      54.174
SCHP US TIPs                                      Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13     +6.65      58.031
SCHD Div Equity                                  Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13    +15.9       31.79
SCHB Broad blend                                 Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13     +22.66    37.96
SCHX Large Cap                                   Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13      +20.76   37.35
SCHV Large Value                                 Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13       +23.22  35.48
SCHM   Mid cap                                    Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13    +19.68    31.51
SCHA    Small                                       Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13     +17.35   32.86
VBR     Small                                         Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13     +19.82   82.15
VYM   Dividend                                     Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +27.88   54.81
XLU     Utilities
+16.55   39.10
SCHH US REIT                                      Cs           Y                Y
3/30/13       +16.79  32.644

US Mutual Funds

FMAGX  US/Intl blend                         FIkIRA   Y                 Y
3/30/13   +9.1yr   79.95
SAMBX  Floating Rate                         Cs           Y                 Y
3/30/13   +0.44      9.06

EX US Equity

CAJ                                                      Ck         Y                 N
3/30/13     +2.12     36.69
CNI                                                       Ck         Y                 N
3/30/13      +32.20  100.30
CRH                                                      Ck         Y                 N
3/30/13      +5.70    22.09
CS                                                         Ck         Y                 N
3/30/13       +6.09   26.20
FTE                                                       Ck         Y                 N
3/30/13       -34.93  10.16
RY                                                        Ck         Y                 N
3/30/13       -1.38    60.30
SI                                                          Ck         Y                 N
3/30/13       +10.07   107.80
VOD                                                     Ck         Y                 N
3/30/13        +5.46  28.40

EX US ETFs

CNDA Canada small                              Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13       -30.42    22.52
EWC Canada Index                               Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13       -11.03    28.51
FXC Canada Currency                           Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13       -4.65      54.72

SCHE      Emerging                               Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13      +0.94     25.55
SCHF International blnd                         Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13       +7.77    27.84
SCHC International small                       Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13        +5.30    28.129

Foreign Mutual Funds

FICDX  Fidelity Canada                        Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +15.85     54.72
MAPTX Asia ex Japan                          Cs           Y                Y
3/30/13   +30.08   25.10

Cs or As MAPTX and other Asia Plays

3/22/13 24.62
2/22/13 25.18
1/22/13 24.91

3/22/13  MACSX has done better than MAPTX and FSEAX over the past 30 days. If things keep dipping, I may want to think about being even more surgical and adding Thailand THD or some Singapore ETFs (EWS, EWSS).
                   30     90    180   1yr   5yr
MAPTX               4      3      3      3
MACSX      2       2      2      2      4
FSEAX                        4
THD           1       1      1      1      1
EWS                                   4
EWSS                  3                     2

Drilling down on THD, it has dropped about 6% in the past few days due to internal Thai issues. Decision: set a deep limit in basket As, 50@82.00 last trade 87.45.

THESIS:

MAPTX gives me international exposure, I am heavy right now on USA. It is Asia ex Japan and has done will over time. Morningstar gives it an overall 4 star rating.  The expense ratio is a bit high 1.1%. But whether I was lucky or dumb, I was up 24% in December 2012 when it was trading at 23.99. At the time I wondered if I should sell before the end of the year and try to avoid the new capital gains rules? Decision was to stay the course and hold the MUTF.

Earlier Discussion

Update February 24, 2013 FSEAX is now at 30.18 and that is great, but I am still be doing better with MAPTX, kinda wish I had picked up MACSX.

Update February 4, 2013 24.99, hey slow and steady wins the race, but lets rerun the analysis for the past 30 days. Right now, it would be hard to convince me to go with FSEAX.

Update January 10, 2013 24.81 this has been a good fund for me, but for grins let's see if we can find some similar funds and see how they perform.
Equity     Expense   30 90 180 365 5yr
MAPTX     1.11       2  2   2      2    2
MACSX     1.12                       1    1
FSEAX        .94       1  1   1
This analysis is not compelling enough to make me want to change, but it is going to be important to watch FSEAX over the next few months.
Update: January 4, 2013 24.69
Update: January 1, 2013, MAPTX last closed at 24.42 WOW!
5/1/13 MAPTX 25.96 Cosmic!

December 21, 2012. I am not a big fan of Mutual Funds, you can't get in and out instantly. However, I have appreciated these two and they are both in my Cs basket with a fairly significant position.

FMIEX is a large cap value mutual fund. I think this is exactly where I want to be if we are a long ways into a bull market, at least that is what I read. Morningstar overall is 4 stars. Expense ratio is also 1.1% which is high. I am up 23% and we have the same question as MAPTX, I have held both of them long enough to trade. It closed today at 14.47.
Update: January 1, 2013 FMIEX last closed at 14.23, set a Google calendar to watch carefully and  start researching a large cap value ETF to replace. Looking at their 30, 90, 120, 365 performance, I think we go with IVE.
                30    90   120  365 2/24/13 5  30  90  180 365
FMIEX
VTV         2             2     2                     2    2    2    2
IVE           1     1     1     1                           1    1    1
SCHV                            3                 1   1               1

Decision: closed position in Cs with FMIEX. Opening position in As with IVE initial purchase 25 shares@market, last price was 66.39.  Following with limit 25@65.
February 24, 2013 last closed at 71.71.

Red Green Ts Jan/Feb 2013

Update February 14, 2013
1) Profit taking, after equities appreciate 20% or more, I sometimes profit take, right now, I am buying CDs that are fairly short term. I ran an elimination on equities in the Ts basket that are up over 20% and that I established the position in 2011.
                5        30      90       180
HURC      3         3        3        1
PRAA       2         2       2         2
Z              1         1       1         4
MMM       5         4       4         5
CVS          4         5       5         3
Decision: Profit take on MMM and CVS, buy a CD, this one is really short, comes due in November 2013.

2) New red report
In order of least red to most red, 5 least red in the account:
                5        30      90       180        365
PSMT       -         -         -          4            -
MCD        -         -         3          3           -
SSL          1         2        2         2            -
IBKR        2         1        4          1           -
MELI        -          -        1          -            -

Here is the 180 day chart:

Decisions:
Sell 60 PSMT Market: Pricesmart has come from positive to just barely negative, get out, preserve capital.
Buy 40 IBKR Market, Interactive brokers is climbing into positive territory ( I hope)
Buy 10 SSL Market, Sasol also looks to be climbing into positive territory

3) Bottom Feeding, sometimes equities that are strongly down start coming back up, we want to pick up on the trend and consider adding to the position.
                5        30      90       180        365
MAKO     3         1        -          -            -
WPRT      2         3        4         -            -
PPO         1         2        1         1            1
FFIV        -         5        3         2             -
TEVA      4        6        5          -             -
CHKP      5        4        2          3            -      
Decisions:
Sell 10 FFIV close the position
Buy 15 PPO@Market, last close 44.03

4) Open Limit Orders February 14, 2013 last close
                               5      30      90
BRCM 20@31.39     1       -        2     31.39
INTU 50@54.83       -       -        3     54.83
ALV 10@59.00        2       1       1     59.00
Decision, change Autoliv to 10@Market
Set calendar to look at MELI and HURC in 30 days
20 shares of MELI, down 4.7% bought at 87.75 last close 83.62
200 share of HURC up 22.8% bought at 24.06 last close 29.54


Update January 8, 2013 || 2/14/13
           5     30    90       ||  5   30    90
IDX            2                   1     2     1
HURC                             -      1     2
SLAB               2             3     3     3
JCI      2     1     1             2     4    1
COH   1                           -      -    -
Decision: 1/8/13: Market order 20 JCI last close was 31.19


1/8/2013 Open limit orders:                                             Close 2/14/13
JCI 20@30.00 - cut market order                                          31.83
BSX 100@5.00 last close 6.12 up 9.3% past 30 days               7.53
FDX 7@89.00 95.11 up 5.75% past 30 days                        106.56
BRCM 20@31.50 34.02 down 0.21 past 30                           34.57
ALV 100@59.00 65.53 up 4.2% past 30                                67.79
Decision: cancel BRCM ( looks like I failed to execute)

Watchlist:
OTEX 57.48 up 3.9% past 30 days, I hold 35 shares, up 2.42% in basket.
Update 2/14/13 Closing OTEX, still up enough to pay the commissions and make a slight profit, last close at 57.33.
CHKP 48.22 up up 4.08% past 30 days, I hold 40 shares, down 14% in basket

Update January 1, 2013
As I understand it we are going to fall off the Fiscal Cliff, so let's set a couple limit orders. The 30 day performance of the lowest positive stocks in the mutual fund from top to bottom are ( and we will reward the two that performed the best with limit orders):
Update of January 1 positive stocks on February 14, 2013
                            2/14/13               Status    Close                        
                                5   30  90  180
GSK                         -    4    4     -  +5.54%  45.66
FDX 7@89.00          1    2    2     2  +17%   106.56
BSX 100@5.00        -     1    1     1  +23.4%    7.53
HYLD  CLOSED POSITION
ENH                        2     3    3     3  +13.9%  44.15
2/14/13 BSX has appreciated the most, but their debt is higher than I would like to see, set a calendar for end of 2013 to consider profit taking if still high.


On the negative side, we will reward the one that performed the best:

OTEX
IDX
SLAB
HURC
JCI 20@30.00

Thesis 12/3/12

There is no way for a small investor like me to compete with Wall Street and their analysts and computers. However I can watch the market and see what is happening.

One of the exercises we go through with the Ts mutual fund is to sort all the stock by the percentage they are up or down and look closely at the zero point. The hope is to buy the stocks as cheaply as possible. We do two exercises the best performing stocks that are negative and the lowest performing stocks that are positive. The goal is to find stocks that are climbing in value.

The five red losers that have lost the least: IDX, ALV, BRCM, WFC, TDC and using the compare function in Google Finance, see which one performed the best for the past 5, 30, 90, 120 days. The winner gets a 1, second place gets a 2.

Then I repeat the process with the five lowest green ( in positive territory). Then I use that information to place a small $500 to $1000.00 increase to the positions. Here is an example from  today's close:

GSK      2
HYLD
OTEX    1 1 1 1
ENH             2
HAIN        2    2

Now this is not entirely fair, HYLD is a high yield bond, so it wil have a hard time beating equities if the market is generally going up, but I like to keep an eye on that world's performance even though the bond fund basket is Ak. Anyway, based on the exercise, I placed three Good Till Canceled limit orders:

• OTEX 10@56.25
• BRCM 20@31.50
• ALV    10@59.00

I am also setting a Google Calendar reminder to keep a close look at OTEX for the next month or so.

Panera (PNRA)

Update February 4, 2013, last close 163.40, down less than 1% over the past 30 days, but I am still not willing to pick it back up in this price range. I would be too likely to be singing the I bought Apple at 700.00 blues :)
1/6/14  176.07, but they are drifting down a bit, 52 week high is 194.77, all the research I have found online seems to consider Panera fairly valued at this point. They did just open a store in Puyallup off of Meridian at the South Hill Mall, will try to drive over, it has been about six months since I have been a Panera.
12/9/13, last close 166.06, not sure my thesis of 128.40 is correct *grin*, but I am sticking to it.
Update December 6, 2012, last close was 156.91, this is all over the map, it says it has a beta of .89, but in the past two weeks I would guess it is closer to 1.5.
Update December 17, 2012, last close was 160.52
Update December 22, 2012, last close was 158.17

Thesis

I closed my position in Panera June 25, 2012. It was up over 20% and part of the strategy for that basket (Ts) is to try to make money on equities and then after their one year birthday, sell the equity and buy a bond or CD to protect the gain.

But I am going to put it on the list for fiscal cliff preparation, if it drops enough I would like to pick it up. Now for what it is worth, I am leery of restaurant stocks as an asset class. I made very good money in the run up of Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD), but every time I ate at one I had a compelling desire to dissolve the position immediately; such a loud place. I also had the fortune to hold Chipotle (CMG) during its insane run up ( and we are going to DC in a week and I intend to visit their Asian restaurant, Shophouse). But I also held Starbucks (SBUX) from 2002 - 2004 when the stock would not climb over $20.00 yet every time I saw a Starbucks it had a ton of people in it ( like Panera ).
February 4, 2013 We did visit Shophouse and it was good not great and appeals at least at Dupont Circle to an younger college age crowd. I can't see how it could be a game changer.

The last close was 160.50 which is richly valued ( of course I said that about Chipotle and it made it to 400 or so). One definition of a bear market is being off 20% from its highs and that is what I think makes sense as a price target to pick Panera back up. So if it hits 128.40 and the company is still firing on all cylinders, I will plan to pick it back up.

BAIDU (BIDU) Ts and Es

Update February 4, 2013 last close was 107.20 still down 22% in Ts, keep climbing guys! But they are only up 2.4% in the past 30 days, so keep money invested in BIDU is taking a lot of faith and hope. But if they get the mobile thing dialed in, who knows. One thing is certain, if this one ever does cross the 20% profit mark, I am profit taking.

Update January 9, 2013, 104.34, but up 3.25 on the day and 17% for the past 30 days. However I am down 24% for BIDU in basket Ts, if it is on a climb out, I still have time to react. Decision: stick with the thesis and keep additional money on the sidelines or make a small purchase with an aggressive limit. The good news is that I am massively up in basket Es with 50 shares while being massively down in Ts with 20 shares. It is not ideal to hold the same equity in two baskets, but I think I want to focus on Es for any new positions. Action: basket Es, 10 limit@100.00.

Update January 4, 2013 104.65, looking good for at least the short term


Update December 21, 2012, 98.70 down 1.14 for the day. Maxim Group issued a sell recommendation and that may account for what happened today. On the other hand, they had a good financial year and I do not really think that other search engine company Qihoo can do them more damage than Yahoo can do to Google. Decision: Wish I had done this December 8, but put in a market order for 50 shares Es basket. Hopefully they are on a climb out, we will see.

Update December 8, 2012 last trade was 89.36, they are down 14.5% over the past 30 day period.
Update December 17, 2012, 96.26, wow, but then again they are bursty, up, down, up, down, when do we have a trend? Also, can we believe their financial reports?

December 1, 2012 Thesis

So far I have tried to largely stay away from this equity. I do currently hold 20 shares in Ts. I believe that it is very risky to buy a stock you are not familiar with. Believe it or not, even though I do not speak Chinese, I have used Baidu with a heavy reliance on Google's translate capability for work in information security.

However, we cannot ignore the fact the population of China is huge and this is a big opportunity for some companies. So the question is when would it make sense to make a play on BAIDU based on the numbers. The 52 week low is 90.55 and they are trading at 96.31. News stories claim they are investing heavily in mobile. And they are re-arranging their finance with a bond issue.

Decision: Keep my money on the sidelines, set a Google calendar entry to look at this again in a month. Given the current data and my total lack of knowledge about the search engine I would be comfortable with a modest position and buy around 80.