Saturday, December 1, 2012

BAIDU (BIDU) Ts and Es

Update February 4, 2013 last close was 107.20 still down 22% in Ts, keep climbing guys! But they are only up 2.4% in the past 30 days, so keep money invested in BIDU is taking a lot of faith and hope. But if they get the mobile thing dialed in, who knows. One thing is certain, if this one ever does cross the 20% profit mark, I am profit taking.

Update January 9, 2013, 104.34, but up 3.25 on the day and 17% for the past 30 days. However I am down 24% for BIDU in basket Ts, if it is on a climb out, I still have time to react. Decision: stick with the thesis and keep additional money on the sidelines or make a small purchase with an aggressive limit. The good news is that I am massively up in basket Es with 50 shares while being massively down in Ts with 20 shares. It is not ideal to hold the same equity in two baskets, but I think I want to focus on Es for any new positions. Action: basket Es, 10 limit@100.00.

Update January 4, 2013 104.65, looking good for at least the short term

Update December 21, 2012, 98.70 down 1.14 for the day. Maxim Group issued a sell recommendation and that may account for what happened today. On the other hand, they had a good financial year and I do not really think that other search engine company Qihoo can do them more damage than Yahoo can do to Google. Decision: Wish I had done this December 8, but put in a market order for 50 shares Es basket. Hopefully they are on a climb out, we will see.

Update December 8, 2012 last trade was 89.36, they are down 14.5% over the past 30 day period.
Update December 17, 2012, 96.26, wow, but then again they are bursty, up, down, up, down, when do we have a trend? Also, can we believe their financial reports?

December 1, 2012 Thesis

So far I have tried to largely stay away from this equity. I do currently hold 20 shares in Ts. I believe that it is very risky to buy a stock you are not familiar with. Believe it or not, even though I do not speak Chinese, I have used Baidu with a heavy reliance on Google's translate capability for work in information security.

However, we cannot ignore the fact the population of China is huge and this is a big opportunity for some companies. So the question is when would it make sense to make a play on BAIDU based on the numbers. The 52 week low is 90.55 and they are trading at 96.31. News stories claim they are investing heavily in mobile. And they are re-arranging their finance with a bond issue.

Decision: Keep my money on the sidelines, set a Google calendar entry to look at this again in a month. Given the current data and my total lack of knowledge about the search engine I would be comfortable with a modest position and buy around 80.

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