Saturday, January 10, 2015

Cs 2015 Low cost ETF Strategy (and friends from earlier strategies)

Strategy: This basket is mostly based on ETFs that can be traded at zero cost. So when there is a down day, I can buy 15 shares, ( I mostly shoot BBs instead of cannon balls). Dividends are reinvested when possible. I also added a floating rate fund to reduce volatility as well as a few short term CDs. There are also energy shares (MUR, CVX, XOM with XOM having the largest position by far). Finally there is a strong position in IBM, it wasn't actually part of the strategy, it was inherited from a previous strategy that did not work. The basic idea is to use the stocks to grow the portfolio in good times, expect the ETFs to be slower to go up or down and the floating rate fund and CDs to reduce volatility so I can sleep at night.

8/24/15 SCHA 50 Limit @45.50, (start setting them deep, we could be in a correction), SCHE 75 Limit 17.50

8/3/15 Blood in the water, IBM 15 Limit @ 158.00

5/7/15 The limit orders expired, MUR, SCHH, and SCHE. Need to reset that money.

4/1/15 Added 15 shares of XOM market order 84.35

3/17/15 AT&T, (T), limit hit. 75@ 32.85 Last close 3/28/25 33.59

3/10/15 They are screaming and running for the exits. As the market dropped some of the limits hit:
XOM 35@ 84.79
SCHF 10@ 29.67 (International equity)
MUR 20@ 48.90
DSUM 60@ 23.52

Setting up a new limit, this is betting large for me. We are going to set a pretty deep limit.
CVX 40 Limit 98.00 Last close 103.02

3/6/15 Blood in the water people! All of my investments are dropping like stones, *grin*. Or could this mean buying opportunity time? The Murphy's oil limit hit, 20@48.90, they closed at 48.60. Great company, hard hit sector, let's get serious about an aggressive limit.
MUR 50@45.00. Last Close 48.60.

DSUM also hit 60@23.52. I am not going to attempt to increase my exposure to China at any price, my friend Richard sent me a link to an article about China that scared me pretty badly.

When I surveyed the "carnage" on the battle field SCHH was hit the hardest.
SCHH limit 40@34.00 Last Close 38.59.

As usual SCHE took another hit. It is one of the few equities in this basket in the red. Let's try a deep limit in case it really dives.
SCHE 100@20.00 Last Close 23.95

3/4/15 SCHE limit hit, 10 shares@24.50

3/2/15 Limit on XLU, (utilities ETF), hit@44.50, it has been dropping all month. Murphy oil got hit pretty hard today,
MUR 20 Limit 48.90 Last Close 49.11

1/30/15 SCHE 30 Limit 23.50 Last Close 23.90
Open limit positions: CVX, DSUM, SCHA, SCHE, SCHE, SCHV,XOM

1/29/15 XOM Exxon Mobile has managed their debt, they are huge and may be well positioned to survive the drop in oil/gas prices. Hopefully, I can add to my position with a limit order:
XOM 25 shares, Limit 85.50  Current price: 86.83 ** I know this is an aggressive limit and it may not hit, but XOM was down over a dollar just today and I want to price in some safety.

1/28/15 DSUM, (Chinese bonds), has been going down since I bought it. However, I am going to add to that position at the cheaper price. I think it helps diversify the basket. Also, the Price Waterhouse Coopers report from 2013 expects China to become the number one economy in the world. NOTE while this is a 2013 report they have done some updated analysis.
DSUM 60 shares Limit 23.60 Last close 23.95

SCHA and SCHD are still open limit orders.

Trying to add to my Murphy Oil position:
MUR 40 Limit 42.50 Last close 43.40
Update: 1/29/15 Bought 40 Unit price 42.46
As near as I can piece together this is what happened. Some near market close on 1/27/15 the supercomputers bet that MUR was not going to make their earnings. They were wrong. The limit hit, MUR beat the earnings estimates are the stock is recovering somewhat from being trashed by Wall Street. Keep in mind that energy is a long term play especially oil. It has taken a beating and probably will for sometime because of the low prices.

1/13/15 We received an unexpected check and I do not want to leave that much money on the sidelines so we are going to fire a few cannon balls. Energy shares are being hammered, I am willing to be overweight in that part of the basket, but am using a limit order, if they do not hit I can keep that cash for small purchases on my ETFs on days they drop, the so called buy on dips strategy.
MUR 190 shares Limit@48 Last close 48.51 Good till canceled
CVX 100 shares Limit@98 Last close 108.21 Good till canceled
XOM 50 shares Limit@90 Last close 92.10 Good till canceled

SAMBX has been losing money. Here is my thesis which may well be flawed.
3/2/15 8.87 (so far 2015 has been positive).

The bulk of the money in this basket is in ETFs that can be traded at no cost. When one of them drops on a given day, I try to add a few more shares. Dividends are reinvested. All of them are positive except for the emerging market. So I will add to that position.
SCHE 90 shares  Limit@23.80 Last close 24.00 Good till canceled.

The result of all this is fire and forget, I will set a calendar reminder to come check on this basket in six weeks or so. If they all hit most of they money on the sidelines will be gone and I will have to wait till some of the CDs come to to make further investments.

1/26/15 Had a few dips in ETFs where I can trade with no broker, they were significantly down so I used market orders to lock them in.
SCHO (US T-bills) 7 shares@50.73
SCHD (US Dividends) 25 shares@39.90

Also opening a position with SFREX, (global REIT), with 3k, when the dust settles, I will update this.
UPDATE 1/28/15 closed with 273.47 shares, 10.97 share

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