- Do not limit purchases/sales to the advice from Motley Fool Deep Value, but pay close attention to them. Ron Gross made Kathy and I some serious dinero with MDP and that opened right as the great recession hit.
- Seek out as much value advice as possible, run screens, take a peek at top holdings of value oriented ETFs and mutual funds.
- After initial build out of 10 equities no equity should comprise more than 10% of the basket,
- Avoid equities with dividend yield > 4%, that might not be sustainable
- Factor debt and P/E into decisions, but the most important factor is underpriced, or unfollowed stocks
- Use limit orders to buy and trailing stops to sell
- This is not a dividend reinvestment play, use the cash to buy more equities
- After initial buildout, up to 25% cash on the sidelines is fine, we are looking for buying opportunities.
- If there is enough cash on the sidelines, consider aggressive limits (10% lower than last close); bluebirds are rare, but they do happen.
1/30/15 First pick: Horsehead Resources:
ZINC 185 Limit 13.35 LC 13.44 NOTE: Beta is 2.19 consider a more aggressive limit, we might be in for some chop.
Round one of a watch list, I am using the top 5 holdings of SCHV (which I hold).
XOM EXXON MOBIL CORP 3.7%
MSFT MICROSOFT CORP 3.4%
JNJ JOHNSON & JOHNSON 2.8%
WFC WELLS FARGO & CO 2.5%
GE GENERAL ELECTRIC CO 2.4%
( potential bonus #6) PG PROCTER & GAMBLE CO 2.3%
Let's do the good ol red/green analysis, keeping in mind that past performance is not indicative of future results and this is only a relative measure constrained to this small, (diversified by sector), group of equities.
30 90 180 1 5 10
XOM 5 2
MSFT 3 4 4
JNJ 2 2 3
WFC 1 1 1
GE 1 3
WOW! I am truly amazed. The blanks are where the companies are negative for that time period, would not have expected this in a bull market that favors the big guys. I think the path of prudence is to proceed carefully. I have a position with each of the equities, but opened those positions years ago. Where to start looking for purchase #2 in a value basket?
Historically Wells Fargo has done well. Let's look at a few numbers starting with debt ratios:
D2Equity 134.20 Interesting, guessing this is leverage? Pot calling the kettle black?
D2Assets 14.67 (In terms of assets they are the 4th largest bank in the US)
P/E 12.67
Beta 1.09
Last close 51.92
They just had a banging quarter, so let's drill down on them solo as opposed to comparing them to other sectors. They are up 14% for the year, but down a bit recently. Let's try a limit order and see if that Beta and some market jitter will help us open up a reasonable position:
WFC 60 Limit 51.00 Last close 51.92
This is far from an aggressive bid, they dropped $0.81 on 1/30/15, now let's see if we can set something more aggressive up.
WFC 80 Limit 47.00 Last close 51.92
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