Retail landscape

Initial discussion is: http://northcuttholdings.blogspot.com/2017/12/retail-stephen-northcutt-and-jim-manico.html

Jim sent this link:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/holiday-retail-sales-reach-record-598-billion/
"Total retail sales this holiday season added up to a record $598 billion dollars — up $33 billion from last year."

Stephen:
Efficient market suggests all that will be priced in when earnings are reported in 2018. There will be no surprises. Now is the time to look ahead. Which retailers will prosper in 2018 and under which situations?

We live in good times, long bull market feeling of prosperity, willingness to open the wallet. That leads to debt:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-households-will-soon-have-as-much-debt-as-they-had-in-2008-2017-04-03
"previous record in April 2008, when consumers had a collective $1.02 trillion in outstanding credit revolving credit."

The clear winner there is Visa, doubled over last year, no reason to think they will slip. Plus there is the trend to cashless, "freedom from carrying cash":
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/going-cashless-bad-for-tax-cheats-privacy-the-poor-quicktake/2017/12/04/4bb13e72-d93f-11e7-a241-0848315642d0_story.html

Use cases:
1) Good times continue to roll, people buy STUFF
2) Stock market falters, but no recession, stock buying opportunity
3) Recession

Macro forces:
= Household disposable income
= Household debt
= Items people need, (toilet paper)

= Items people want, (sports cars)