http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/pages/macroeconomic-insights-folder/2018-global-economic-outlook-as-good-as-it-gets/report.pdf
US Households have too much debt, guess none of us have ever heard that before.
Moody’s Vice President Rita Sahu, “Auto loan delinquencies are above pre-crisis levels at around 2.3 percent,” Sahu warned, “and credit card charge-offs have increased sharply to around 3.6 percent as of the third quarter 2017.”
"According to Black Knight, in November, mortgage delinquencies jumped by 13 percent, the largest monthly rise since 2008, when the financial crisis was beginning to ravage housing."
Canada too:
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/24/canadas-household-debt-levels-higher-than-any-other-country-report-says.html
Now we have all been here before. For one thing it means less new cars get sold, (though people still want SUVs):
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-autos-sales/investors-ignore-u-s-auto-sales-outlook-bet-on-pickups-and-suvs-idUSKBN1ES1B9
The republican "tax cuts" should just about zero out the impact of slight rise in interest rate by the fed on ability of households to absorb a car payment, so we come back to how leveraged and confident they are.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-02/fed-outlook-for-higher-rates-dims-u-s-auto-sales-view-for-2018
States with the most debt per capita:
California, Hawaii, Colorado, Utah, DC, Oregon, Washington, Massachusetts, Maryland.
More retail woe for three basic reasons: household debt reaching a ceiling, oversupply of retail floor space, debt held by retail companies. The strong will survive, (AMZN, WMT, COST?, KR?), the weak, (Sears, K-Mart, Toys-R-Us, JP Penny?, Macy?), will perish.
NOTE: check out Kansas City in the link below
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-retail-debt/
NOTE; I can't find the root cause for Kansas City at this time.
The folks in Kansas city do not appear to know they are in trouble:
http://www.kansascity.com/news/business/national-international/article192512074.html
The report covers, (red/blue last presidential election): Arkansas - red, Iowa - red, Kansas - red, Minnesota - blue, Missouri - red, Nebraska - red, North Dakota - red, Oklahoma - red, and South Dakota - red.
It's the economy, stupid. States with fastest growing economies in 2015, theory being you can spend more if you are earning more:
California, Texas, Colorado, Montana, Utah, Florida, Washington, Nevada, North Carolina.
Or slowest, descending order:
New Mexico, Mississippi, Connecticut, Maine, Wyoming, Kansas, Vermont, West Virginia, Alaska, North Dakota.
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