Tuesday, January 2, 2018

Retail Costco

Three things never cease to amaze me about Costco:
- There are always a lot of cars in the parking lot
- There are always a lot of carts in line with ~$500.00 worth of booty
- There are always things that I totally do not need that end up in my cart

Before we talk about stock, I need to disclose a bias. I live in Hawaii in the winter time and you can't live here without going to Costco and Walmart, the grocery store prices are VERY HIGH.

But despite my bias, here are some thoughts on Costco as an investment.

This guy is shorting the stock and he has a point about both valuation and margins, "I think Costco should be much, much lower than it is today and its lack of margin growth is the reason why."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4133959-costco-going-lower-2018

Buy it now because its online sales are going to rock:
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/18/bmo-buy-costco-because-its-in-early-stages-of-online-sales-surge.html

Buy Costco now because they have retail 3.0 voodoo! What is retail 3.0?
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4132600-costco-market-might-right

Costco in my view is high right now. So is everything else. My pastor said there were 70 stock record highs in 2017. I have no idea if that is correct, but record high certainly is. The short idea is very attractive, but for the moment I have an aggressive limit order @179.00. That gives me some time to think.

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