Saturday, November 24, 2012

Facebook Ts

Update January 10, 2013 30.59, 51% increase over 90 days, that is awesome. But to keep me cautious since this is real money, I just read a Wall Street Journal blog saying Facebook's era is over. Not sure I agree.

Thesis 11/24/12

Update 3/29/13 Closed the position in Ts. We were up 20% and it has been dropping for a month and I thought I might as well protect the principle and lock in profits.

The US stock market has been on a long bull run so it pays to look for value picks. One strategy near the later stages of a bull run is to increase your positions in large safe positions in the hope money will flow to them and if you do start to decline into bear territory hopefully they will hold up better. I found a blog post suggesting that GE, Wells Fargo, Google and IBM might be good choices. I already have positions in all four and heavy positions relative to my portfolio in Google and IBM. This blog post recommends Yahoo and Microsoft. I am not at all sure that is a smart move.

But another strategy would be companies with good ideas and product that can move fast. What about Facebook (FB)? I use Facebook and so do a gazillion other people. The lockup is over, so if there are some large sales the price could go down. I am currently up 30%, but would be willing to add to my position if I could get a decent price. It is in the mutual fund, basket Ts which might have been bad strategy, it might have been better to put in the online retail basket, but it is done. Hmmmm. Decision: set a deep limit, which may not hit, this has been a good month for Facebook. 50 shares @ 20.00 Good Till Canceled. This is currently the only open order in basket Ts.

I will try to keep mulling this over, but I am comfortable with a bit of money on the sidelines right now. Sometimes cash is a smart place to be.

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