The Universe minus Ts

US Individual Equities  (3 or more)         Basket   Dividend?    Reinvest?

AAPL                                                    Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13     -15.52  442.66
ADM                                                     Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13   +15.60   33.73
AMZN                                                   Sk         N                 N
3/30/13    +32.98  266.49                
BA                                                        Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13   +21.21   85.85
BANF                                                    Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    +9.80    41.70
BMY                                                     Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    +27.87   41.19
CL                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    +25.70   118.03
CLF                                                       Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    -72.07     19.01
CFBI                                                      Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13   +13.31    34.03
CTXS                                                     Sk         N                 N
3/30/13   -10.37    72.15
CYT                                                       Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13   +24.15   74.08
DD                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    +6.35    49.16
DELL                                                     Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13   +3.10    14.33
EBAY                                                     Sk         N                 N
3/30/13   +51.92    54.22
EXC                                                       Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    -19.76   34.48
FDX                                                       Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13    +15.82   98.20
GE                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +26.52  23.12
GIS                                                        Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +19.75  49.31
GRPN                                                    Sk         N                 N
3/30/13     +45.47   6.12
HE                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +8.92    27.71
HNZ                                                      Ck         Y                 Y
3/3013      +35.85   72.27
IBKR                                                     Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      -2.09   14.91
IBM                                                       Cs         Y                 Y
3/30/13  +82.18    213.30
INTC                                                     Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    -14        21.835
JNJ                                                        Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +24.92  81.53
KCLI                                                      Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +4.54  39.13
L                                                            Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13       +11.26   44.07
LLY                                                       Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13          +46  56.70
LPSN                                                      Sk         N                 N
3/30/13      -20.48  13.58    
LUK                                                       Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +3.38    27.43
MA                                                         Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13      +44.42  541.13
MCD                                                      Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +1.70    99.69
MDT                                                       Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +21.47   46.96
MMM                                                      Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    +38.77    106.31
NKSH                                                     Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +28.47    34.93
ODP                                                        Sk         N                 N
3/30/13     +80.39    3.93
PAYX                                                     Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +11.11    35.06
PETS                                                       Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13      +5.90     13.41
PFE                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +30.51    28.86
PG                                                          Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +21.85    77.06
PNC                                                        Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +10.48   66.50
PROV                                                      Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +80.32   17.01
PSX                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +121.30  69.97
SLB                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +10.35    74.89
SYK                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +19.69    65.24
T                                                              Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +21.74    36.69
UPS                                                          Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13     +16.73    85.90
V                                                              Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +66.53    169.84
V                                                              Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13     +59.06    169.84
VLO                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +81.82    45.49
WAG                                                        Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13      +42.17    47.68
WERN                                                      Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13      +4.64      24.14
WFC                                                         Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +27.10    36.99
WMT                                                        Sk         Y                 N
3/30/13      +25.18    74.83
XOM                                                        Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13      +5.63      90.11
XOM                                                        Cs         Y                 Y          
3/30/13  +12.89%  90.11

US ETFs

PHO Water                                            Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13    +44.75    22.98
SCHR Intermed T                                  Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13    +6.42      54.174
SCHP US TIPs                                      Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13     +6.65      58.031
SCHD Div Equity                                  Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13    +15.9       31.79
SCHB Broad blend                                 Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13     +22.66    37.96
SCHX Large Cap                                   Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13      +20.76   37.35
SCHV Large Value                                 Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13       +23.22  35.48
SCHM   Mid cap                                    Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13    +19.68    31.51
SCHA    Small                                       Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13     +17.35   32.86
VBR     Small                                         Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13     +19.82   82.15
VYM   Dividend                                     Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +27.88   54.81
XLU     Utilities
+16.55   39.10
SCHH US REIT                                      Cs           Y                Y
3/30/13       +16.79  32.644

US Mutual Funds

FMAGX  US/Intl blend                         FIkIRA   Y                 Y
3/30/13   +9.1yr   79.95
SAMBX  Floating Rate                         Cs           Y                 Y
3/30/13   +0.44      9.06

EX US Equity

CAJ                                                      Ck         Y                 N
3/30/13     +2.12     36.69
CNI                                                       Ck         Y                 N
3/30/13      +32.20  100.30
CRH                                                      Ck         Y                 N
3/30/13      +5.70    22.09
CS                                                         Ck         Y                 N
3/30/13       +6.09   26.20
FTE                                                       Ck         Y                 N
3/30/13       -34.93  10.16
RY                                                        Ck         Y                 N
3/30/13       -1.38    60.30
SI                                                          Ck         Y                 N
3/30/13       +10.07   107.80
VOD                                                     Ck         Y                 N
3/30/13        +5.46  28.40

EX US ETFs

CNDA Canada small                              Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13       -30.42    22.52
EWC Canada Index                               Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13       -11.03    28.51
FXC Canada Currency                           Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13       -4.65      54.72

SCHE      Emerging                               Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13      +0.94     25.55
SCHF International blnd                         Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13       +7.77    27.84
SCHC International small                       Cs          Y                 Y
3/30/13        +5.30    28.129

Foreign Mutual Funds

FICDX  Fidelity Canada                        Ck         Y                 Y
3/30/13     +15.85     54.72
MAPTX Asia ex Japan                          Cs           Y                Y
3/30/13   +30.08   25.10

Cs or As MAPTX and other Asia Plays

3/22/13 24.62
2/22/13 25.18
1/22/13 24.91

3/22/13  MACSX has done better than MAPTX and FSEAX over the past 30 days. If things keep dipping, I may want to think about being even more surgical and adding Thailand THD or some Singapore ETFs (EWS, EWSS).
                   30     90    180   1yr   5yr
MAPTX               4      3      3      3
MACSX      2       2      2      2      4
FSEAX                        4
THD           1       1      1      1      1
EWS                                   4
EWSS                  3                     2

Drilling down on THD, it has dropped about 6% in the past few days due to internal Thai issues. Decision: set a deep limit in basket As, 50@82.00 last trade 87.45.

THESIS:

MAPTX gives me international exposure, I am heavy right now on USA. It is Asia ex Japan and has done will over time. Morningstar gives it an overall 4 star rating.  The expense ratio is a bit high 1.1%. But whether I was lucky or dumb, I was up 24% in December 2012 when it was trading at 23.99. At the time I wondered if I should sell before the end of the year and try to avoid the new capital gains rules? Decision was to stay the course and hold the MUTF.

Earlier Discussion

Update February 24, 2013 FSEAX is now at 30.18 and that is great, but I am still be doing better with MAPTX, kinda wish I had picked up MACSX.

Update February 4, 2013 24.99, hey slow and steady wins the race, but lets rerun the analysis for the past 30 days. Right now, it would be hard to convince me to go with FSEAX.

Update January 10, 2013 24.81 this has been a good fund for me, but for grins let's see if we can find some similar funds and see how they perform.
Equity     Expense   30 90 180 365 5yr
MAPTX     1.11       2  2   2      2    2
MACSX     1.12                       1    1
FSEAX        .94       1  1   1
This analysis is not compelling enough to make me want to change, but it is going to be important to watch FSEAX over the next few months.
Update: January 4, 2013 24.69
Update: January 1, 2013, MAPTX last closed at 24.42 WOW!
5/1/13 MAPTX 25.96 Cosmic!

December 21, 2012. I am not a big fan of Mutual Funds, you can't get in and out instantly. However, I have appreciated these two and they are both in my Cs basket with a fairly significant position.

FMIEX is a large cap value mutual fund. I think this is exactly where I want to be if we are a long ways into a bull market, at least that is what I read. Morningstar overall is 4 stars. Expense ratio is also 1.1% which is high. I am up 23% and we have the same question as MAPTX, I have held both of them long enough to trade. It closed today at 14.47.
Update: January 1, 2013 FMIEX last closed at 14.23, set a Google calendar to watch carefully and  start researching a large cap value ETF to replace. Looking at their 30, 90, 120, 365 performance, I think we go with IVE.
                30    90   120  365 2/24/13 5  30  90  180 365
FMIEX
VTV         2             2     2                     2    2    2    2
IVE           1     1     1     1                           1    1    1
SCHV                            3                 1   1               1

Decision: closed position in Cs with FMIEX. Opening position in As with IVE initial purchase 25 shares@market, last price was 66.39.  Following with limit 25@65.
February 24, 2013 last closed at 71.71.

Red Green Ts Jan/Feb 2013

Update February 14, 2013
1) Profit taking, after equities appreciate 20% or more, I sometimes profit take, right now, I am buying CDs that are fairly short term. I ran an elimination on equities in the Ts basket that are up over 20% and that I established the position in 2011.
                5        30      90       180
HURC      3         3        3        1
PRAA       2         2       2         2
Z              1         1       1         4
MMM       5         4       4         5
CVS          4         5       5         3
Decision: Profit take on MMM and CVS, buy a CD, this one is really short, comes due in November 2013.

2) New red report
In order of least red to most red, 5 least red in the account:
                5        30      90       180        365
PSMT       -         -         -          4            -
MCD        -         -         3          3           -
SSL          1         2        2         2            -
IBKR        2         1        4          1           -
MELI        -          -        1          -            -

Here is the 180 day chart:

Decisions:
Sell 60 PSMT Market: Pricesmart has come from positive to just barely negative, get out, preserve capital.
Buy 40 IBKR Market, Interactive brokers is climbing into positive territory ( I hope)
Buy 10 SSL Market, Sasol also looks to be climbing into positive territory

3) Bottom Feeding, sometimes equities that are strongly down start coming back up, we want to pick up on the trend and consider adding to the position.
                5        30      90       180        365
MAKO     3         1        -          -            -
WPRT      2         3        4         -            -
PPO         1         2        1         1            1
FFIV        -         5        3         2             -
TEVA      4        6        5          -             -
CHKP      5        4        2          3            -      
Decisions:
Sell 10 FFIV close the position
Buy 15 PPO@Market, last close 44.03

4) Open Limit Orders February 14, 2013 last close
                               5      30      90
BRCM 20@31.39     1       -        2     31.39
INTU 50@54.83       -       -        3     54.83
ALV 10@59.00        2       1       1     59.00
Decision, change Autoliv to 10@Market
Set calendar to look at MELI and HURC in 30 days
20 shares of MELI, down 4.7% bought at 87.75 last close 83.62
200 share of HURC up 22.8% bought at 24.06 last close 29.54


Update January 8, 2013 || 2/14/13
           5     30    90       ||  5   30    90
IDX            2                   1     2     1
HURC                             -      1     2
SLAB               2             3     3     3
JCI      2     1     1             2     4    1
COH   1                           -      -    -
Decision: 1/8/13: Market order 20 JCI last close was 31.19


1/8/2013 Open limit orders:                                             Close 2/14/13
JCI 20@30.00 - cut market order                                          31.83
BSX 100@5.00 last close 6.12 up 9.3% past 30 days               7.53
FDX 7@89.00 95.11 up 5.75% past 30 days                        106.56
BRCM 20@31.50 34.02 down 0.21 past 30                           34.57
ALV 100@59.00 65.53 up 4.2% past 30                                67.79
Decision: cancel BRCM ( looks like I failed to execute)

Watchlist:
OTEX 57.48 up 3.9% past 30 days, I hold 35 shares, up 2.42% in basket.
Update 2/14/13 Closing OTEX, still up enough to pay the commissions and make a slight profit, last close at 57.33.
CHKP 48.22 up up 4.08% past 30 days, I hold 40 shares, down 14% in basket

Update January 1, 2013
As I understand it we are going to fall off the Fiscal Cliff, so let's set a couple limit orders. The 30 day performance of the lowest positive stocks in the mutual fund from top to bottom are ( and we will reward the two that performed the best with limit orders):
Update of January 1 positive stocks on February 14, 2013
                            2/14/13               Status    Close                        
                                5   30  90  180
GSK                         -    4    4     -  +5.54%  45.66
FDX 7@89.00          1    2    2     2  +17%   106.56
BSX 100@5.00        -     1    1     1  +23.4%    7.53
HYLD  CLOSED POSITION
ENH                        2     3    3     3  +13.9%  44.15
2/14/13 BSX has appreciated the most, but their debt is higher than I would like to see, set a calendar for end of 2013 to consider profit taking if still high.


On the negative side, we will reward the one that performed the best:

OTEX
IDX
SLAB
HURC
JCI 20@30.00

Thesis 12/3/12

There is no way for a small investor like me to compete with Wall Street and their analysts and computers. However I can watch the market and see what is happening.

One of the exercises we go through with the Ts mutual fund is to sort all the stock by the percentage they are up or down and look closely at the zero point. The hope is to buy the stocks as cheaply as possible. We do two exercises the best performing stocks that are negative and the lowest performing stocks that are positive. The goal is to find stocks that are climbing in value.

The five red losers that have lost the least: IDX, ALV, BRCM, WFC, TDC and using the compare function in Google Finance, see which one performed the best for the past 5, 30, 90, 120 days. The winner gets a 1, second place gets a 2.

Then I repeat the process with the five lowest green ( in positive territory). Then I use that information to place a small $500 to $1000.00 increase to the positions. Here is an example from  today's close:

GSK      2
HYLD
OTEX    1 1 1 1
ENH             2
HAIN        2    2

Now this is not entirely fair, HYLD is a high yield bond, so it wil have a hard time beating equities if the market is generally going up, but I like to keep an eye on that world's performance even though the bond fund basket is Ak. Anyway, based on the exercise, I placed three Good Till Canceled limit orders:

• OTEX 10@56.25
• BRCM 20@31.50
• ALV    10@59.00

I am also setting a Google Calendar reminder to keep a close look at OTEX for the next month or so.

Panera (PNRA)

Update February 4, 2013, last close 163.40, down less than 1% over the past 30 days, but I am still not willing to pick it back up in this price range. I would be too likely to be singing the I bought Apple at 700.00 blues :)
1/6/14  176.07, but they are drifting down a bit, 52 week high is 194.77, all the research I have found online seems to consider Panera fairly valued at this point. They did just open a store in Puyallup off of Meridian at the South Hill Mall, will try to drive over, it has been about six months since I have been a Panera.
12/9/13, last close 166.06, not sure my thesis of 128.40 is correct *grin*, but I am sticking to it.
Update December 6, 2012, last close was 156.91, this is all over the map, it says it has a beta of .89, but in the past two weeks I would guess it is closer to 1.5.
Update December 17, 2012, last close was 160.52
Update December 22, 2012, last close was 158.17

Thesis

I closed my position in Panera June 25, 2012. It was up over 20% and part of the strategy for that basket (Ts) is to try to make money on equities and then after their one year birthday, sell the equity and buy a bond or CD to protect the gain.

But I am going to put it on the list for fiscal cliff preparation, if it drops enough I would like to pick it up. Now for what it is worth, I am leery of restaurant stocks as an asset class. I made very good money in the run up of Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD), but every time I ate at one I had a compelling desire to dissolve the position immediately; such a loud place. I also had the fortune to hold Chipotle (CMG) during its insane run up ( and we are going to DC in a week and I intend to visit their Asian restaurant, Shophouse). But I also held Starbucks (SBUX) from 2002 - 2004 when the stock would not climb over $20.00 yet every time I saw a Starbucks it had a ton of people in it ( like Panera ).
February 4, 2013 We did visit Shophouse and it was good not great and appeals at least at Dupont Circle to an younger college age crowd. I can't see how it could be a game changer.

The last close was 160.50 which is richly valued ( of course I said that about Chipotle and it made it to 400 or so). One definition of a bear market is being off 20% from its highs and that is what I think makes sense as a price target to pick Panera back up. So if it hits 128.40 and the company is still firing on all cylinders, I will plan to pick it back up.

BAIDU (BIDU) Ts and Es

Update February 4, 2013 last close was 107.20 still down 22% in Ts, keep climbing guys! But they are only up 2.4% in the past 30 days, so keep money invested in BIDU is taking a lot of faith and hope. But if they get the mobile thing dialed in, who knows. One thing is certain, if this one ever does cross the 20% profit mark, I am profit taking.

Update January 9, 2013, 104.34, but up 3.25 on the day and 17% for the past 30 days. However I am down 24% for BIDU in basket Ts, if it is on a climb out, I still have time to react. Decision: stick with the thesis and keep additional money on the sidelines or make a small purchase with an aggressive limit. The good news is that I am massively up in basket Es with 50 shares while being massively down in Ts with 20 shares. It is not ideal to hold the same equity in two baskets, but I think I want to focus on Es for any new positions. Action: basket Es, 10 limit@100.00.

Update January 4, 2013 104.65, looking good for at least the short term


Update December 21, 2012, 98.70 down 1.14 for the day. Maxim Group issued a sell recommendation and that may account for what happened today. On the other hand, they had a good financial year and I do not really think that other search engine company Qihoo can do them more damage than Yahoo can do to Google. Decision: Wish I had done this December 8, but put in a market order for 50 shares Es basket. Hopefully they are on a climb out, we will see.

Update December 8, 2012 last trade was 89.36, they are down 14.5% over the past 30 day period.
Update December 17, 2012, 96.26, wow, but then again they are bursty, up, down, up, down, when do we have a trend? Also, can we believe their financial reports?

December 1, 2012 Thesis

So far I have tried to largely stay away from this equity. I do currently hold 20 shares in Ts. I believe that it is very risky to buy a stock you are not familiar with. Believe it or not, even though I do not speak Chinese, I have used Baidu with a heavy reliance on Google's translate capability for work in information security.

However, we cannot ignore the fact the population of China is huge and this is a big opportunity for some companies. So the question is when would it make sense to make a play on BAIDU based on the numbers. The 52 week low is 90.55 and they are trading at 96.31. News stories claim they are investing heavily in mobile. And they are re-arranging their finance with a bond issue.

Decision: Keep my money on the sidelines, set a Google calendar entry to look at this again in a month. Given the current data and my total lack of knowledge about the search engine I would be comfortable with a modest position and buy around 80.

INVN IvenSense

May be the 2nd fastest growing semiconductor company, but they fired their CEO and do not seem to be performing well. I closed my position 300 shares with a market order.

Wish I had done it earlier, they have dropped 20% in 90 days.

Update December 6, 2012  Roth Capital issued a buy on this equity. They closed today at 10.03.
Update December 17, 2012, maybe i goofed this one, they closed at 10.73

Update January 9, 2013, 12.79, I am pretty sure I goofed on this one

WFC Ts

One of my holdings that I am trying to grow carefully is Wells Fargo (WFC). I think they are an incredible bank. Here is a link to an interview with their CEO that has significant insights into the economy and is not to be missed.

From the article talking about how much Americans are saving: "In fact we think there's something between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion on businesses' and consumers' balance sheets that is sitting in our vaults. I've never seen it like this before. I've never seen the deposit growth the way we have it, and it's not because the yields are so high. It's security."


Update December 6, 2012, closed at 33.14 and is on a tear, lots of analyst support.
Update December 17, 2012, 34.38

Update January 9, 2013, 34.71, 20 limit@34.50

Meridian Biosciences (VIVO) Ts

Update February 4, 2013 closed today at 21.12, 20 shares limit@21.00.
Update January 9, 2013, 20.97, an article posted on the Motley Fool website points out a technical analysis of their Accounts Receivable and Days Sales Owed might indicate good things. Going to take some money off the sidelines, 30@Market.
Update December 17, 2012 20.30, sadly I have neither an executed order or an open order with this online broker ( Ts), so it is possible this trade failed due to human error ( mine) however, if that happens a couple more times we are going to figure out how to change brokers. Also, it appears they are going to be adding two more products to their medical diagnostic roster according to this article.

12/1/12 20.03

3/1/13   21.42

Meridian Biosciences (VIVO) got whacked today dropping by 5%. It is up about 9% in my mutual fund Ts, so in the spirit of buying on a dip I set a limit order for 30 shares @19.30

Thesis

In a number of parts of the country, it is getting harder and harder to see a doctor. These guys make testing kits that you can use at home. They also have a good cash flow and balance sheet.

Charles Schwab ETFs: SCHH, SCHC, SCHE etc

7/23/13
SCHG (large cap) is up over 20%, but had a tiny drop of .3% today, 15@market
SCHP (TIPs) is starting to collapse like every other bond fund, 20 Limit@53.50
SCHE (emerging) is down 3%, 10@market

Update February 24, 2013
1) Many of the articles I read say that it is the time to be solidly into large cap stocks. Maybe so, let's start the research using low cost Charles Schwab ETFs:
CAP            5     30     90
S   SCHA    -       3       1
L   SCHV    1      1       3
L   SCHG    -       5       5
L   SCHX    -       4       4
M  SCHM   -       2       2
Too early for me to tell, but looks like trying to buy SCHV on dips for the next few weeks is not a bad idea. Here is the 30 day chart. They are pretty much rising and falling together, the SCHG  (yellow) could be a mild value play if it suddenly starting climbing.

2) Open Limit Orders
SCHA   10@37.50
SCHF    10@26.20
SCHV   10@32.15
"       "   10@34.00
VBA     15@72.00

Update February 5, 2013, market had a terrible day today, SCHF, SCHC, SCHG were hit the hardest on a percentage basis. SCHG (US Growth) seems to be doing the best overall, so added 20 shares @market. SCHG closed at 35.74 February 4, 2013.
Update December 21, 2012 SCHE ( emerging markets) was the most down for the day, closed at 26.28, put in a market order for 20 shares.

Thesis

I am using Charles Schwab online brokerage to manage a large part of my investment which is based on index ETFs. I will log in from time to time and try to discern which ETF is the most down today and it was SCHH (Charles Schwab REIT ) so I added 20 shares as a market buy. The strategy for this basket is to use Charles Schwab allowing no trade fee for their line of ETFs. This allows me to add to my positions in small amounts on dips and using limit orders.

I am VERY pleased to report that at this precise moment in time, all of the ETFs are in the green. So dollar averaging, by buying on dips to add to the position will help me improve the odds I can keep some of these in the green. Of course the market is going to drop at some point, but if we are careful we can add to the position with that as well.

SCHE and SCHC are both slightly down, I am going to set limit orders for these:

SCHE 25@24.60

SCHH 25@26.00

Ts Red Green zero point

Tranche 3 January 11, 2013
5 lowest green stocks in the account by percent since purchase
Ticker  5   30    90
GSK
GTI           1
OTEX 1            2
WFC
ITRN 2     2      1

Thesis let market forces help you choose small bets

The equities in the title are close to the red green neutral point in my Ts basket. Part of the small bet strategy of this basket is to let the market drive trading decisions. The hope is to use this to help find value priced stocks.

Tranche 1 consisted of:

ROLL

BRCM

ALV

BSX

IDX
I compared one month, three month and six month performance and BSX did the best followed by IDX. I used market orders and bought as close to 5.00 as possible.

Update December 8, 2012, looks like I lost money on this one, they are down 1.66% in the past 30 days last close was 28.51
Update December 17, 2012 BSX is up to 5.74, up 11.67% for past 30 days and IDX is 29.17 up 1.43% for past 30 days.

Update January 11, 2013 in a little over a month ROLL is up 14.75%, BSX 11.89, ALV, 9.11%, BRCM 7.89%, IDX -3.07%

Tranche 2 GSK, WFC, TEVA, CMI, ITRN and the last two won and I repeated the process.

Update December 8, 2012: Cummins (CMI) is up 3.66% in last 30 days, last close was 101.69 Ituran (ITRN) is up 1.17% for last 30 days, last close was 13.08
Update December 17, 2012 CMI 105.75 and ITRN 12.93

Update January 11, 2013 CMI is up 4.84% in past 30 days, 8.47% in the account. ITRN is up 7.84% in 30 days, 6.9% in the account.

I also did profit taking with Panera (PNRA) and used the money buy a one year CD from the bank of Baroda at .5% interest, but PNRA was up 26%.

I also set a limit for one share of Intuitive Surgical @500.00 it has been dropping and this may be an opportunity to add to that holding. By the way MAKO has become the lowest performer in the mutual fund. Gosh.

Red Green play of the day Ts

I got an alert that ASH had dropped over 4% in the first hour of the day. That leads me to believe that this will be an active day on the market. I went up to my mutual fund, basket Ts and sorted the equities by the day's gain and loss.

One rule of this basket is no big bets. I try to place trades in the $500.00 - $1,000 range. I chose the stocks that are positive ( green ) that had the largest drop so far in the day and set some deep limits, who knows?

HAIN 10 shares @ 57.00

GS 5@112

MA 2@470

NOV 10@68

Facebook update. My limit may not work, FB is screaming in the upwards direction, 25.70 at last count. But, what goes up due to Wall Street computer algorithms also comes down so we will see.

Facebook Ts

Update January 10, 2013 30.59, 51% increase over 90 days, that is awesome. But to keep me cautious since this is real money, I just read a Wall Street Journal blog saying Facebook's era is over. Not sure I agree.

Thesis 11/24/12

Update 3/29/13 Closed the position in Ts. We were up 20% and it has been dropping for a month and I thought I might as well protect the principle and lock in profits.

The US stock market has been on a long bull run so it pays to look for value picks. One strategy near the later stages of a bull run is to increase your positions in large safe positions in the hope money will flow to them and if you do start to decline into bear territory hopefully they will hold up better. I found a blog post suggesting that GE, Wells Fargo, Google and IBM might be good choices. I already have positions in all four and heavy positions relative to my portfolio in Google and IBM. This blog post recommends Yahoo and Microsoft. I am not at all sure that is a smart move.

But another strategy would be companies with good ideas and product that can move fast. What about Facebook (FB)? I use Facebook and so do a gazillion other people. The lockup is over, so if there are some large sales the price could go down. I am currently up 30%, but would be willing to add to my position if I could get a decent price. It is in the mutual fund, basket Ts which might have been bad strategy, it might have been better to put in the online retail basket, but it is done. Hmmmm. Decision: set a deep limit, which may not hit, this has been a good month for Facebook. 50 shares @ 20.00 Good Till Canceled. This is currently the only open order in basket Ts.

I will try to keep mulling this over, but I am comfortable with a bit of money on the sidelines right now. Sometimes cash is a smart place to be.

The market does not seem to like President Obama

Wow, the market really dropped today. That means it is time to buy. First I went to my mutual fund basket Ts. I picked six positive performers that got nicked today. One of the rules of that basket is to buy on dips. Everything is a market buy meaning I am using up about half of my allowable market buys for the year, but I want to lock in the dip. We have more money on the sidelines than we are supposed to so this will help line up with the rules for the basket. All buys are supposed to be between $500 and $1000, this is a "NO BIG BETS" basket.

Mastercard (MA), 2 shares

Amazon (AMZN), 3 shares

Goldman Sachs (GS), 5

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), 1

Price Smart (PSMT), 10

Portfolio Recovery (PRAA), 5

Why did I burn so many of my allowable market buys? Well, by the end of the week I may be calling this a dumb move, but these are some of the strongest, best performing assets in the mutual fund. Even if the market continues to drift down, my thesis is these will recover faster than most of the other assets. Anytime you have a portfolio, you expect to have winners and losers. By adding to the postions of the winners and a dip, the hope is they will help the overall portfolio.

CMG and Shophouse

I do not hold Chipotle (CMG). I did, made a frightful amount of money on it, not because I am smart, because I was lucky. I like their restaurant concept, especially the bowl without the burrito.

Back to efficient markets, not only do the Wall Street computers know just about everything about everything, but day by day that information is available to people to you and and me. Here is an example, I was looking at CMG on Google Finance and it pointed to this blogpost. I do not know who Mr. Prewitt is, but he clearly put some effort into his analysis. What I learned from his post was the idea of Shophouse. WOW!!! And the cool thing is that next month we will be in DC in the Washington Hilton, so it is a short walk to Dupont Circle. I can't wait to try the restaurant.

Does this mean if we like the Asian version of this we would by the stock? Oh, no, no, no. However, it does mean that after I get to taste that food and I am VERY EXCITED, I will follow CMG a lot closer.

Meanwhile, in Gotham City, CMG is considering menu changes that could drive revenue. One idea is serving breakfast or having drivethroughs.

• Update November 21, 2012 CMG announced a stock buyback closed at 275.40
• Update December 3, CMG closed at 263.50, I am setting a buy around at 210.8
• Update December 10, 2012 I did get to eat at the Shophouse at Dupont Circle. It was OK, not great, mostly a college crowd.
• Update December 17, last closed at 286.74, up 9 dollars for the day, I am sticking with a buy around 210.8 and Mr. Market can school me why I am wrong.

Basket Ts ( Mutual Fund)

Ts is my "mutual fund". It takes more of my time than any other basket. I am not even sure it is a good idea, but a heck of an experiment.

Put in a limit order for 10 shares of Terradata (TDC) @ 63.00. I do not know if it will ever hit, but didn't hurt to try, I have more money on the sidelines than the rule for basket Ts recommends.

Limit order to buy 2 shares of MasterCard (MA) @464.00

Sell Ruger (RGR) Market, If President Obama prevails, this will drop fast though it may recover later, I would rather be spared the ride.

The big news is that I am closing my position in Starbucks (SBUX) and buying a CD with the proceeds at .5% interest for one year from Bank Hapoalim.

Rules for basket Ts

Must be hosted on a low cost online broker, max trade fee is $5.00

Initial positions may not exceed $2,500

Additional buys should usually be about $500 - $1,000, no big bets

When making additional buys, keep the capital gains "birthday" in mind

Try not to exceed 10% of money on the sidelines

Any equity that passes 20% profit is a candidate for closing the position on the birthday and purchasing a CD or bond

Equities in Ts may exist in other baskets

Most of my analysis focus is on the lowest performing 15 winning ( positive ) stocks and the 10 losing ( negative ) stocks

It is allowable to add to positions of positive winning stocks on big dips

No more than 15 market price trades per year, use a limit to buy

Use market orders to sell

Losses may be harvested to manage tax liability

Ignore the efficient market hypothesis?

I am not an expert in investing. This is my trading notebook for myself and close family. You are welcome to any of my research, but do your own research and form your own opinions.

I just read that in article by Value Investing. I am not wise enough to say they are wrong; I surely have my share of mistakes. However, I do know that Wall Street has their share of computers and databases, they may not know everything, but they know a lot.

The article is worth reading, as an investor I need to always challenge my beliefs. And they make some good points, especially with stocks that do not have much analyst following. Here is a seeking alpha write up of best and worst performing stocks of late. If I understand the Value Stock Guide article correctly, there may be a gem somewhere in the worst performing list, find a thinly followed small cap stock; research the company and open a small position. Not sure that I have the smarts to buy a stock just because it is in the worst performing list :).

5/1/13 Found some web site that tracks what Hedge funds are doing. They claim to be beating the S&P by 20% or some such. I guess the idea is to hang onto the hedgefund coattails, ( the smart money), and invest in the stocks they invest in. Strikes me as an odd approach and apparently they want you to buy their research to get a detailed look. I think it would be easier to look at the top holdings of some of the better performing ETFs and Mutual Funds, BUT that doesn't make it a good idea. To make money in the stock market we have to buy the right stock at the right price. I doubt they know how they acquired the stocks, limits, puts, calls, some combination. Anyway, what a glorious week to see so much green on the balance sheet. What I am trying to remind myself, ( learn, Stephen, learn), is NOT to make the classic small investor mistakes.

Working on the Ts Mutual Fund

November 4, 2012

Since I have done some profit taking, I have some cash in my tiny mutual fund. Tonight I moved a small amount of money off the sidelines and added about $500 - $1000 of each of these to my existing positions:


PCAR: this stock has shown strength in 2012. 15 shares, Limit, 44.70

• Update December 17, 2012 44.31

TEVA: largest generic drug producer. 15 shares, Limit, 41.00

• Update December 17, 2012 38.39

FDX: Like Fedex is going anywhere? 10 shares, Limit, 90.00

• Update December 17, 2012 91.02

SUP: Hey, they make great wheels. 39 shares, Limit, 17.20

• Update December 17, 2012 19.04

GS: Cause they are scary smart. 5 shares, Limit, 120.00

• Update December 17, 2012 123.49

These represent five different performance levels in the mutual fund. PACCAR has performed the worst year to date, but seems to show some strength, Goldman Sachs, the best, but they were off a bit on Friday and I have hopes of adding to my position on a dip.

Had a bond from the good ol days called today

Drat! I had a 10k bond at 6% called today. As I mentioned in the recent Risk Appetite blog post, I am overweight on stocks and ETFs so that was not an ideal situation for my portfolio. Even though the stock market has been good to you and I for a long time now, I felt I needed to put that money into a smoother return than stocks, so I added that to the sum we are putting in one of the annuities. Sigh!

Being a small investor with a demanding day job makes it really hard to drive strong returns from the overall market and as you approach retirement age it seems to make sense to quit taking as many chances.

Risk Appetite

There must be a person, or perhaps an office somewhere that writes the main copy of the financial analysis about why the market went up or down on any given day.

I follow the Canadian TSX market about as closely as the US, because they have their debt under control and all those natural resources ( though their economy appears to get jerked around by the US and Euro economies). In an analysis I was reading it said that economic news increased risk appetite so the market went up.

Just a few seconds ago I was reading Google Finance and it said:"Asian shares advanced to their highest in nearly two weeks with risk appetite returning on signs that a trend of global recovery is stabilizing, particularly in the United States and China." Awesome, but just how do they know that the news of the day is actually the force driving the market. Earnings reports, I understand, inflation and the concern that a fairly sizable economy will default on its debt, I understand. Risk appetite, that I have less understanding of.

I get risk appetite at the personal level. As you start approaching retirement you want to smooth out your returns and try to be conservative to ensure that one blazingly bad day in the stock market will not wipe you out. I am in the process right now of trying to set up two single pay annuities that will pay Kathy and I until we die. I realize it is a TERRIBLE investment in terms of returns compared to X, Y and Z. However, we were lucky enough to have made a couple investments in cyber security startups that did well and also lucky enough to have worked for a great company that pays well. So, as part of our portfolio, we can afford to have a couple of low return ( right now about 4% ) income streams. Now, that is all I am going to do right now, because I believe interest rates will go up and I will have the opportunity to work with CDs and Municipal bonds at a more reasonable interest rate. But the majority of my portfolio is in stocks, but that is OK because investors have risk appetite and the market went up today right?

AAPL, AMZN, RGR

Apple and Amazon have been kicked about a little so I added five shares of both as a market buy.

Now, is it time to cash in on Ruger? I have not held the shares for a year, my brother in law tipped me that people were buying guns like crazy in the fear that President Obama would get re-elected and ban assault rifles. It sounded like a conspiracy theory at first, but I went to a gun show and these people truly believe what they are saying. They I looked at the company and it is very well run, they have a low debt load, they are living the manufacturing dream. In fact their stock got hit because the demand is so high, they had to quit accepting orders. When does that happen?

I really hate paying capital gains. I feel I pay too much tax already, why would I consider a self inflicted wound without a really good reason?

My thesis at this point is that if the President wins I am going to take a massive hit in the stock price. However, I need to keep in mind that Wall Street has every little jot and tittle factored into the price and RGR is 94% Institutional Investor owned. Yes, the President has some authority, but there is another party in Congress, called the Republican party and they have typically support the right to arm bears(SIC).

So, it is unlikely gun control, even what many people might consider a sensible ban on assault weapons will be a slam dunk. Good company, there is demand for the product, it is unlikely that government legislation will overly interfere with them. There is risk in the decision, but I am going to hold the equity.

SCHH, ASNA, MSFT

Today the market was generally up. I keep a set of ETFs from Charles Schwab because they are low cost in terms of management and from a Charles Schwab account they are free to trade, so you can make modest trades. This REIT ETF went down today more than any other ETF I have, so I tried to buy on the dip and picked up 10 shares at 30.30 per share.

More profit taking. I closed my position in Ascena Retail for two reasons despite the fact I think it is a well run company. One of my investing thesis for 2012 is that online retailers are going to continue to pressure brick and mortar stores. And the other is that this is really high priced I think. Opened the position Oct. 6, 2011, have an average unit cost of 15.64 and that is a 31.40% profit. Since some of the shares will be short term, I will have to select some lucky dog stock to offset the capital gains. Bought a CD that expires in 2015 with a whopping .85 interest.

In a fit of calculated insanity, I hopefully opened a position for Microsoft in the Es basket. MSFT dropped about .64 today to close at 28.00. I have a limit set for 27.50, we shall see.

Sprott Resource Corp

Uh Oh. I was closing out a few losers to make a tax advantage for the winners I have been closing positions on and I tried to close SCPZF and I could not. The website popped up a sign that said I could only set a limit order. I did that and then it said the charge to sell could be $150.00 or more. Since I only have about $1,500.00 I said no for the day. However, I think I am going to log back in tomorrow and call the online broker. If is a LOT better to get out with an extra $150.00 loss than to lose everything. Great reminder that when we invest, we invest with real money and accept real risk.

VEU, VBR, IWR

We have been in a long bull and while there is no possible way I can time the market, I can choose to profit take to stash some of the profits in CDs or other stable investment and also to put some money on the sidelines for buying opportunities.

Three candidates are VEU, VBR, IWR. Let's consider the merits of each decision.

VEU is all world ex US. I believe that international stocks are more of a value pick than US stocks. Therefore, after contemplating this for days, I have elected to stay the course and hold my investment in VEU.

VBR is small cap, US. While I think this is an excellent ETF, small caps tend to underperform in a long bull. Let's take our gains and put the money into a CD.

IWR is mid cap. I have the same thesis for a long bull market. Sell and invest the principal and interest in a short term CD.

What if I wanted to keep some of the money in the game? In a generally up market we need a compelling thesis.

Four or Five Tech Leaders?

My son bought Apple a couple weeks ago just in time to have the price drop fifty dollars while Google went up about that much. Is it temporary or is the shine off the Apple?

Some smart analysts from the Motely Fool just wrote an article on the topic.

Then Eric Schmidt there are four tech leaders that matter, Apple, Google, Amazon, and Facebook, leaving Microsoft out. I found an interesting article on Slashdot saying he was wrong.

Who is going to be tops? This Forbes blog says it is Google. I guess the next year will be interesting as they continue to "duke it out".

High Speed Trading

Mikko Hypponen, one of the greatest minds in security posted a link that asserts that 4% of all trades and 10% of all trading volume were the result of a test of a new High Speed Trading algorithm ( HST ).

This predatory practice really does not directly affect individual investors like me. I try to mostly adhere to a buy and hold strategy even though I do profit take successful stocks that I cannot believe should become core holdings. Since my world view is a year minimum, I really do not care if someone else gets to "queue jump".

However, it does impact me; and you, and everyone one else. The less faith in the free market system, the less investment. The less investment, the lower the stock prices. As an investor, I have been consistently taking profits from this lovely bull market and investing my principal and interest in safer investments such as CDs and Municipals.

When and if I am blessed to new money in the market, I try to make a value play ( not that I am against growth, we just are fairly far down the bull path). While I deeply understand I cannot time the market, my gut, my experience, tells me to *slightly* reduce my exposure, profit take, and get money on the sidelines for a buying spree if the market should tank. But, that does not mean I am not buying, just that I am buying with deep limit offers. I put two in my Value Basket FIk tonight, ALEX (limit 20.00) and JMBA (limit 2.20). Hopefully, these HSP crooks are not so smart that when the market is crashing they beat me to my limit offer.

Update October 20, 2012 Jamba closed on Friday at 2.31 Alexander Baldwin closed at 26.93

Ideas from Value Investing Congress

Someone tipped me to a Motley Fool post about the value investor conference. It was a lengthy post, but I had two takeaways.

ALEX Alexander & Baldwin is a Kauai and Maui company formed in 1870. The have both commercial and undeveloped land on their balance sheet. A lot of it, something like 25% of Maui. It would need to be a deep limit and mark your trading notebook that it is a long term play, i.e. your kids would do the profit take.

JMBA Jamba Juice. The big point for me is that the stores, which have a small footprint average $700k year. This is a bad management turn-around. I like the Jamba Juice concept. If you have looked at my Sumner WA analysis, they have two smoothie shops on Main St and I do not think either of them have a moat. This would be a fun way to open a retail business.

Vanguard ETFs

I am in the process of profit taking and doing two things with the proceeds:

Putting some money on the sidelines because I expect some great buying opportunities with the Fiscal Cliff

Putting some money into short term CDs and similar investments for increased safety and I expect bonds and CDs to start creating a higher return a year from now

Profit taking with XPH (SPDR), VTV, VIG, VBK. These Vanguard ETFs have performed very well and it there is a major drop in the market and it is over 30 days from today, I would strongly consider re-establishing a position.

VEU and VBR don't have their birthday until October 13, 2012 so I set a Google reminder to put in a sell order on Sunday the 14th. But I am not sure I want to sell VEU, it is Vanguard's all world ex US and it has performed well and I think there could be more room to climb.

I know we tend to view ETF vendors as commodity, all the same, but I have watched Vanguard over the years and I am pretty impressed. I tried opening an account, but could not see a way to open a trust account, maybe I will try again tonight.

BRK.A sold BRK.B Es

Update January 10, 2013 Just for grins, BRK.A closed at 140,000.00 down 1k for the day, up 4.57 for the past 90 days. I am still glad I sold it though, that is too much for me. BRK.B closed at 93.32 up 4.55% for the past 90 days. I am much more comfortable with the smaller stake in BRK.B.
Update Oct 20, 2012 I am never, ever, going to make a bet like that again. I am so glad I got out and even ahead. Friday, the stock went down about $1,559.00 in a single day. Wow!


10/8/2012
Buying a share of BRK.A is the riskiest investment I have ever made, but I sold it today with a 22% profit. Berkshire Hathaway is a wonderfully run company and certainly firing on all cylinders financially, but if something was to happen to Warren Buffet, I think it could easily drop 30% in an hour. You have to take some risk to invest in the stock market, but I am glad that principal and interest is now in a one year CD at 0.55 interest on a coupon.

Core Holdings

What are core holdings? I honestly feel that most people including myself are better off buying ETFs first and build a solid base of several asset classes, commodities, consumer, technology etc. But eventually you will probably want to buy individual equities. Core holdings are stocks that you have done your research on. You hold them for years. You know the company and track its performance. I have watched Ford and Wal-Mart for years. Ford just has too much debt for me to hold that stock in any great measure, but every time I see a Mustang or an F150 truck on the road I salivate. At one point, Wal-Mart was a core holding for me; then I started reducing my position several years ago as established stores started selling less every year and in August 2011, started adding to that position again. How many core holdings should one have? I don't know. My core holding basket has a rule of a maximum of 12. I was up to eight at the start of the bull run, but have been profit taking as the value of a holding crossed over 20% increase and spent the money on CDs and Municipals. Right now I have three, Google ( GOOG), Apple (AAPL) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A). If the market will keep from crashing on Monday, I will be down to two and that means really looking at my watch list. Berkshire Hathaway has been good, really good, but I am concerned that they are really dependent on Warren Buffet. The watch list concept When I was a boy, I used to take the Sunday paper and read the stock tables. I kept a paper portfolio. This is a watch list. Even before you have the money to invest, start trying to find the companies you want to partner with. Read about them, do business with them. If you have more disposable income, you can open up a small position and watch them rise and fall. Core holdings are stocks you want to hold for a very long time unless you think conditions are changing. One of these for me is Google (GOOG). I think Google has a moat. They do not just do search, they have the Android phone, they have Gmail, they have a tremendous amount of marketing information with location services and DoubleClick. If Google suddenly drops a lot, I am not going to panic, instead, I will look at my finances and see if I can add to my holdings. Of course things can change, but right now it looks like I will be holding Google a decade from now. I am not going to sell either equity for a mere 20% gain, I am just curious which one will cross the thousand dollar per share mark first. These days, my watch list is my mutual fund basket Ts. I have an online broker that charges less per trade than most and I trade a lot usually in $500.00 increments. The rules of that basket are: - The initial lead can come from any source - < debt to asset ratio of 20 - No big moves, $500.00 increments - If it doesn't look like it can become a core holding and it crosses 20% increase and it is past its one year birthday, sell it and buy a CD or municipal bond. This way I do not have a ton of skin in the game, but I lose money or gain money depending on how it performs. This helps me pay attention. If you are still working, consider not taking dividends in cash Also, try to find a system that will allow you to add to your investment commission-free, usually with a Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP). The goal is to follow a few different companies that are in sectors that will be in demand, have healthy balance sheets and use these to comprise the core of your equity investment. My suggestion is to try to find at least eight equity sectors for diversity and find the solid companies that are likely to be around for a long time. Then, set Google Alerts for those companies. Do business with them, do whatever you can to know a little more about the companies you pick than the average Wall Street trader. When there are dips in the market, buy more of the companies you have grown to understand. Let me try to make this plain for you. Maybe you have heard Apple is a great stock and it has served many investors and investment clubs well. January 2011 - January 2012 it is up 22.35% and you have the iPhone 5 and iPad 3 still to come, so 2012 should be a good year for Apple. However, if you have a Windows PC, an Android phone and don't own an iPad, this is probably not a stock you want to own as a core holding. Without Steve Jobs, things may start to change and if you do not have your finger on the pulse, you may miss the change. UPDATE October 6, 2012: The maps thing really concerned me as does the purple tinge on the iPhone 5 camera. I will be keeping a close eye on Apple. But I am sure not going to bet against them in the current situation.

Three keys to safe(er) investing

This is modified and updated from my earlier financial blog. There are many strategies, with ours there are three keys to help you be efficient with both your time and money. Investing by low cost, commission free index ETFs is the first key. Think about it. If you invest in a number of obscure individual equities, say: MRCY, JNJ, KELYA, JNPR, SNY, MELI, AFAM, they may all be great companies - in fact, at the time of this writing, they are. However, after you own them, you get busy and X, Y, Z happens, and suddenly, they are not as good of a deal. Now what? It has been 30 days since you visited your account and one of these lovely equities is now down by 50%. That could happen with ETFs as well, but because they are broadly based, they tend to fall a little less and a little slower than some equities though they may also rise less and slower. Since we do not have armies of analysts and computers that never sleep monitoring our investments this is a little safer. After all an Exchange Traded Fund ( ETF ) show not totally go to zero, with an individual equity, if the company goes bankrupt we are at the back of the creditor line. You can be an active investor even if you do not move beyond index and specialized ETFs. Take a minute to check out this incredible resource, finance.yahoo.com. If you go to their ETF page, they have a browser that allows you to compare and contrast hundreds of ETFs by type. For instance, I might want to achieve some diversification based on the size of companies. A common categorization is "small cap, mid cap, large cap and mega cap". Cap is short for market capitalization, the amount of money the outstanding shares of stock are worth. More or less, small cap is 300 Million to 2 Billion, mid, 2 - 10 billion, large above 10. Why do you care? Well if you look at the ETFs that I selected from finance.yahoo.com, RZV - small cap value, CZA - mid cap value, CVY - large cap value, you can easily see that RZV is more volatile. It had lower lows and higher highs in a this three month period. TIP: the less you pay for your ETF, the more money you can invest. Two things to consider:

What is the trade fee to buy the ETF? This varies by online broker, but many online brokers will let you buy some ETFs with no trade fee, check out the deals at Charles Schwab and Ameritrade for starters.

What is the management fee? Charles Schwab brand ETFs have a low management fee and so does Vanguard. After that, it is up to you to research. The second key is to recycle your trading ideas. In another blog post we will talk more about that. Go to the store, buy one of those cheap composition books, or even better (since this is real money we are talking about), invest in a Moleskine Legendary notebook. Create a table of contents. Give every equity you want to follow at least four pages. Make observations and predictions. Establish a thesis: "I believe this equity will go up (down) because...", then list as many reasons as possible, and see what happens. As you mature as an investor and move from index based ETFs to also add individual equities to your portfolio, you will want to establish a position in eight to twelve companies that you understand. As you grow even more, you may have small positions in candidates that may one day become core holdings. The third key is to have an online portfolio, or even several. A great place to start is Google Finance, but if you prefer a different web site, more power to you. The idea though is to have one place where you can look at ETFs and individual equities you are interested in to see how they are doing at a glance. Although I set time aside during the year for deep study, week to week, I try not to spend more than fifteen minutes in the evening, Sunday through Thursday, looking at the market. I know what I am interested in. I have my portfolio showing on Google Finance, I bring up the online broker basket* that I have allocated some money to and I start making my decisions. Even though I am busy and need to go fast, I often make my decisions one night, sleep on them, come back the next night and if it still makes sense, execute the trade.